Moreirense 0-1 GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Moreirense at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Moreirense vs GIL Vicente fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 30 as Moreirense welcome GIL Vicente to Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 April 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Moreirense have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters this season, Moreirense have posted 5W 3D 2L at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Moreirense are significantly better at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas than their overall form suggests.
GIL Vicente — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
GIL Vicente's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
On current form, Moreirense have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Moreirense, 0 for GIL Vicente and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Moreirense trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
GIL Vicente trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Moreirense 31% versus GIL Vicente 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Moreirense 38% | GIL Vicente 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Moreirense 1.39 xG and GIL Vicente 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Moreirense attack 0.826 / defence 0.974 | GIL Vicente attack 0.818 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.460 / away 1.261. Data: 29 Moreirense games / 63 GIL Vicente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Moreirense 46% | Draw 27% | GIL Vicente 27%. Fair-value odds: Moreirense 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | GIL Vicente 3.70. Moreirense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Moreirense as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Moreirense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Moreirense 30% | GIL Vicente 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Moreirense vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Moreirense 46% | Draw 27% | GIL Vicente 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Moreirense 1.39 / GIL Vicente 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Moreirense attack 0.826 / def 0.974 | GIL Vicente attack 0.818 / def 1.154 | league avg home 1.460 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Moreirense (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Moreirense xG
Expected Goals
1.00
GIL Vicente xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Moreirense vs GIL Vicente kick off?
Moreirense vs GIL Vicente kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
What was the final score in Moreirense vs GIL Vicente?
Moreirense 0 - 1 GIL Vicente.
Where is Moreirense vs GIL Vicente being played?
The match is being played at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
What competition is Moreirense vs GIL Vicente part of?
Moreirense vs GIL Vicente is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Moreirense vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives Moreirense a 46% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Moreirense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Moreirense vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Moreirense and GIL Vicente will score (BTTS).
Will Moreirense vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Moreirense and GIL Vicente?
Record (3 meetings): Moreirense 1W | Draws 2 | GIL Vicente 0W.
What form are Moreirense and GIL Vicente in?
Moreirense (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. GIL Vicente (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Moreirense's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against GIL Vicente's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, GIL Vicente's attack versus Moreirense's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Moreirense Win
46%
2.19
27%
3.65
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Moreirense xG
Total xG
2.40
1.00
GIL Vicente xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
17%
5.99
7%
14.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Moreirense vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Moreirense and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Moreirense and 1.00 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Moreirense vs GIL Vicente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Moreirense's recent record stands at 12W 7D 10L from 29 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five.
GIL Vicente, meanwhile, have gone 7W 7D 15L across 29 games — 0.97 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Moreirense by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over GIL Vicente heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Moreirense have managed 6W 4D 4L from 14 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
GIL Vicente's away record stands at 2W 1D 11L across 14 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.97 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of GIL Vicente's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Moreirense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Moreirense are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.24 scored and 1.66 conceded.
Defensively: Moreirense have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Moreirense
Current Season
GIL Vicente
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Moreirense and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
Moreirense have gone 12W 7D 10L in their last 29 games (1.48 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 7W 7D 15L in their last 29 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Moreirense at home or GIL Vicente away?
Moreirense's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Moreirense at home: 1.57 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Moreirense or GIL Vicente been keeping clean sheets recently?
Moreirense have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, GIL Vicente in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: GIL Vicente have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Moreirense's record when hosting GIL Vicente specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Moreirense
2
Draws
3
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Moreirense and GIL Vicente?
From 8 meetings on record, Moreirense have won 3, GIL Vicente have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Moreirense and GIL Vicente last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Moreirense 1-2 GIL Vicente.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Moreirense see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Moreirense 43%, GIL Vicente 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Moreirense) and 71% (GIL Vicente).
On the defensive side: Moreirense keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; GIL Vicente in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Moreirense home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Moreirense play GIL Vicente?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Moreirense's recent matches and 50% of GIL Vicente's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Moreirense vs GIL Vicente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Moreirense's recent games and 71% of GIL Vicente's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Moreirense and GIL Vicente tend to score early?
Moreirense have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, GIL Vicente in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as GIL Vicente defy the odds to beat Moreirense 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIL Vicente beat Moreirense 0-1 at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Regular Season - 30, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Moreirense 1.39 xG and GIL Vicente 1.00 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Moreirense fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Moreirense attack 0.83 / defence 0.97 against GIL Vicente attack 0.82 / defence 1.15, drawn from 29/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Moreirense 46% | Draw 27% | GIL Vicente 27%, with Moreirense to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual GIL Vicente win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Moreirense 38%, GIL Vicente 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Moreirense's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
GIL Vicente's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Moreirense arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.97. Form was overturned, with GIL Vicente winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Moreirense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.