Maritimo 0-0 Moreirense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Maritimo at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Maritimo vs Moreirense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Moreirense travel to Estádio da Madeira to take on Maritimo. The game is scheduled for Friday 1 October 2021, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Maritimo have gone 1W 3D 3L from 7 outings — a 0.86 PPG return. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 0.86 goals per game and conceding 1.29 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Maritimo have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Maritimo have posted 0W 2D 1L at Estádio da Madeira — 0.67 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Moreirense stand at 1W 3D 3L from 7 Primeira Liga matches — 0.86 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.43 per game is modest, conceding 2.29 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.29 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 86% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Moreirense have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Moreirense's away record: 0W 2D 1L from 3 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Maritimo 0.86 PPG, Moreirense 0.86 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Maritimo register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Moreirense in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Maritimo in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Moreirense in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Maritimo 57% and Moreirense 86% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Maritimo 43% | Moreirense 86%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Maritimo 1.54 xG and Moreirense 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Maritimo attack 0.913 / defence 1.311 | Moreirense attack 0.787 / defence 1.584. League average goals — home 1.064 / away 1.149. Moreirense bring a strong defensive rating of 1.584 — this is suppressing Maritimo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Maritimo games / 7 Moreirense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Maritimo 42% | Draw 32% | Moreirense 26%. Fair-value odds: Maritimo 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | Moreirense 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Maritimo as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Maritimo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Maritimo 67% | Moreirense 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Maritimo vs Moreirense | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estádio da Madeira • Kick-off: Friday 1 Oct 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Maritimo 42% | Draw 32% | Moreirense 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 58% | xG Maritimo 1.54 / Moreirense 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Maritimo attack 0.913 / def 1.311 | Moreirense attack 0.787 / def 1.584 | league avg home 1.064 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Maritimo (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Maritimo xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Moreirense xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Maritimo vs Moreirense kick off?
Maritimo vs Moreirense kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 1 October 2021 at Estádio da Madeira.
What was the final score in Maritimo vs Moreirense?
Maritimo 0 - 0 Moreirense.
Where is Maritimo vs Moreirense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio da Madeira.
What competition is Maritimo vs Moreirense part of?
Maritimo vs Moreirense is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Maritimo vs Moreirense?
Our statistical model gives Maritimo a 42% chance of winning, Moreirense a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Maritimo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Maritimo vs Moreirense?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Maritimo and Moreirense will score (BTTS).
Will Maritimo vs Moreirense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and Moreirense?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Maritimo and Moreirense in?
Maritimo (all comps): 1W-3D-3L in 7 | 0.86 PPG | GF 0.86 / GA 1.29 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Moreirense (all comps): 1W-3D-3L in 7 | 0.86 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 2.29 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Maritimo's attack at 0.91x the league average against Moreirense's defence at 1.58x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Moreirense's attack versus Maritimo's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Maritimo Win
42%
2.39
32%
3.09
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Maritimo xG
Total xG
2.72
1.19
Moreirense xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
13%
7.81
6%
18.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.0 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Maritimo vs Moreirense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Maritimo and Moreirense expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Maritimo and 1.19 for Moreirense, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Maritimo vs Moreirense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 7 outings, Maritimo have picked up 0.86 PPG on a 1W 3D 3L record — D-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Maritimo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Moreirense's form line: 1W 3D 3L from 7 games, 0.86 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Moreirense, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Maritimo on 0.86 PPG, Moreirense on 0.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Maritimo have posted 0.67 PPG from 3 outings (0W 2D 1L).
On the road, Moreirense have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Maritimo are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Moreirense are on 1.43 scored and 2.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Moreirense in 86%.
Last 7 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Maritimo
Early Season
Moreirense
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Maritimo and Moreirense in coming into this match?
Maritimo have gone 1W 3D 3L in their last 7 games (0.86 PPG), while Moreirense have gone 1W 3D 3L in their last 7 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Maritimo at home or Moreirense away?
Maritimo's home record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Maritimo at home: 0.67 PPG; Moreirense away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Maritimo and Moreirense runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Maritimo
1
Draws
0
Moreirense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and Moreirense?
From 2 meetings on record, Maritimo have won 1, Moreirense have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Maritimo and Moreirense last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2022, when Moreirense 0-1 Maritimo.
Who has won more matches between Maritimo and Moreirense?
Maritimo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Maritimo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Moreirense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Maritimo at 67%, Moreirense at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Maritimo) and 67% (Moreirense).
On the defensive side: Maritimo have failed to score in 33% of games; Moreirense in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Maritimo home games / Moreirense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Maritimo play Moreirense?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Maritimo's games and 67% of Moreirense's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Maritimo vs Moreirense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Maritimo's recent games and 67% of Moreirense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Maritimo and Moreirense tend to score early?
Maritimo have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Moreirense in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Maritimo's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Maritimo and Moreirense finished level at 0-0 at Estádio da Madeira, Regular Season - 8, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Maritimo 1.54 xG and Moreirense 1.19 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Maritimo fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Moreirense landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Maritimo attack 0.91 / defence 1.31 against Moreirense attack 0.79 / defence 1.58, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Maritimo 42% | Draw 32% | Moreirense 26%, with Maritimo to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Maritimo 43%, Moreirense 86%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Maritimo's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Moreirense's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Maritimo 0.86 PPG, Moreirense 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Maritimo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Moreirense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.