GIL Vicente 0-1 SC Braga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Braga at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIL Vicente vs SC Braga fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees SC Braga travel to Estádio Cidade de Barcelos to take on GIL Vicente. The game is scheduled for Monday 25 October 2021, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, GIL Vicente have gone 2W 3D 3L from 8 outings — a 1.12 PPG return. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 1.25 goals per game and conceding 1.25 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIL Vicente's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 2L across 4 games at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
SC Braga — All Games: 3W 4D 1L from 8 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.62 PPG. Last five: D D W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets in 8 outings (38%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SC Braga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Braga's away record: 2W 2D 0L from 4 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. SC Braga are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.62 vs 1.12), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
GIL Vicente trading profile (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
SC Braga trading profile (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIL Vicente 50% versus SC Braga 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIL Vicente 50% | SC Braga 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIL Vicente 1.07 xG and SC Braga 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIL Vicente attack 1.045 / defence 1.225 | SC Braga attack 0.863 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 0.950 / away 1.218. Data: 8 GIL Vicente games / 8 SC Braga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIL Vicente 27% | Draw 36% | SC Braga 38%. Fair-value odds: GIL Vicente 3.70 | Draw 2.78 | SC Braga 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Braga are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Braga offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: GIL Vicente 50% | SC Braga 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIL Vicente vs SC Braga | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos • Kick-off: Monday 25 Oct 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIL Vicente 27% | Draw 36% | SC Braga 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 51% | xG GIL Vicente 1.07 / SC Braga 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: GIL Vicente attack 1.045 / def 1.225 | SC Braga attack 0.863 / def 1.075 | league avg home 0.950 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: SC Braga (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
GIL Vicente xG
Expected Goals
1.29
SC Braga xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIL Vicente vs SC Braga kick off?
GIL Vicente vs SC Braga kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 25 October 2021 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What was the final score in GIL Vicente vs SC Braga?
GIL Vicente 0 - 1 SC Braga.
Where is GIL Vicente vs SC Braga being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What competition is GIL Vicente vs SC Braga part of?
GIL Vicente vs SC Braga is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win GIL Vicente vs SC Braga?
Our statistical model gives GIL Vicente a 27% chance of winning, SC Braga a 38% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making SC Braga the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIL Vicente vs SC Braga?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both GIL Vicente and SC Braga will score (BTTS).
Will GIL Vicente vs SC Braga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and SC Braga?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are GIL Vicente and SC Braga in?
GIL Vicente (all comps): 2W-3D-3L in 8 | 1.12 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.25 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. SC Braga (all comps): 3W-4D-1L in 8 | 1.62 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
GIL Vicente's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against SC Braga's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. The same calculation in reverse, SC Braga's attack versus GIL Vicente's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Braga Win
27%
3.73
36%
2.81
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
GIL Vicente xG
Total xG
2.35
1.29
SC Braga xG
3.73
27%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
7%
13.49
13%
7.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 12.2 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIL Vicente vs SC Braga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are GIL Vicente and SC Braga expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 1.29 for SC Braga, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for GIL Vicente vs SC Braga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
GIL Vicente come into this having played 8 games, going 2W 3D 3L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-D. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SC Braga sit at 1.62 PPG from 8 outings (3W 4D 1L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for SC Braga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Braga carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of GIL Vicente — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
GIL Vicente's home form reads 1W 1D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Braga have taken 2.00 points per game from 4 outings (2W 2D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Braga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
GIL Vicente are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; SC Braga are on 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Braga in 62%.
Defensively: SC Braga in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIL Vicente
Blended
SC Braga
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIL Vicente and SC Braga in coming into this match?
GIL Vicente have gone 2W 3D 3L in their last 8 games (1.12 PPG), while SC Braga have gone 3W 4D 1L in their last 8 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIL Vicente at home or SC Braga away?
SC Braga's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIL Vicente at home: 1.00 PPG; SC Braga away: 2.00 PPG.
Have GIL Vicente or SC Braga been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIL Vicente have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, SC Braga in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
GIL Vicente have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
GIL Vicente's record when hosting SC Braga specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
GIL Vicente
2
Draws
5
SC Braga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and SC Braga?
From 10 meetings on record, GIL Vicente have won 3, SC Braga have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did GIL Vicente and SC Braga last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when GIL Vicente 2-1 SC Braga.
Who has won more matches between GIL Vicente and SC Braga?
SC Braga have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
SC Braga tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIL Vicente 50%, SC Braga 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (GIL Vicente) and 25% (SC Braga).
On the defensive side: SC Braga in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIL Vicente home games / SC Braga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIL Vicente play SC Braga?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of GIL Vicente's recent matches and 50% of SC Braga's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIL Vicente vs SC Braga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of GIL Vicente's recent games and 25% of SC Braga's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIL Vicente and SC Braga tend to score early?
GIL Vicente have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, SC Braga in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Braga edge out GIL Vicente 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Braga beat GIL Vicente 0-1 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 9, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.07 xG and SC Braga 1.29 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. GIL Vicente fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 1.04 / defence 1.23 against SC Braga attack 0.86 / defence 1.07, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 27% | Draw 36% | SC Braga 38%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 50%, SC Braga 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIL Vicente's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SC Braga's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.