Famalicao 2-1 Tondela – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Famalicao at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Famalicao vs Tondela fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Tondela make the trip to Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho to face Famalicao in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Saturday 26 February 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Famalicao have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Famalicao's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
Tondela (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Tondela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tondela's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Famalicao's favour (1.30 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Famalicao 0W, Tondela 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 2–3 with Tondela winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Famalicao goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Tondela goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Famalicao 52% versus Tondela 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 56% | Tondela 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 1.45 xG and Tondela 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 0.948 / defence 0.996 | Tondela attack 0.755 / defence 1.430. League average goals — home 1.067 / away 1.358. Tondela bring a strong defensive rating of 1.430 — this is suppressing Famalicao's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Famalicao games / 23 Tondela games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Famalicao 46% | Draw 27% | Tondela 26%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Tondela 3.85. Famalicao hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Famalicao as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Famalicao if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Famalicao 40% | Tondela 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs Tondela | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 46% | Draw 27% | Tondela 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Famalicao 1.45 / Tondela 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 0.948 / def 0.996 | Tondela attack 0.755 / def 1.430 | league avg home 1.067 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Tondela xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs Tondela kick off?
Famalicao vs Tondela kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs Tondela?
Famalicao 2 - 1 Tondela.
Where is Famalicao vs Tondela being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What competition is Famalicao vs Tondela part of?
Famalicao vs Tondela is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs Tondela?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 46% chance of winning, Tondela a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Tondela?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Famalicao and Tondela will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs Tondela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Tondela?
Record (1 meetings): Famalicao 0W | Draws 0 | Tondela 1W.
What form are Famalicao and Tondela in?
Famalicao (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Tondela (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Famalicao's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Tondela's defensive record (1.43x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. Flip it around — Tondela's attack (0.76x) against Famalicao's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
46%
2.16
27%
3.64
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Famalicao xG
Total xG
2.47
1.02
Tondela xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
6%
16.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.5 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs Tondela?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Famalicao and Tondela expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Famalicao and 1.02 for Tondela, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs Tondela?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Famalicao's recent record stands at 5W 8D 10L from 23 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tondela, meanwhile, have gone 6W 2D 15L across 23 games — 0.87 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Tondela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Famalicao against 0.87 for Tondela. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Famalicao have managed 2W 5D 4L from 11 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tondela's away record stands at 2W 2D 7L across 11 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Famalicao are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Tondela are on 1.26 scored and 1.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tondela in 61%.
Last 23 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Blended
Tondela
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and Tondela in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 5W 8D 10L in their last 23 games (1.00 PPG), while Tondela have gone 6W 2D 15L in their last 23 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or Tondela away?
Famalicao's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 1.00 PPG; Tondela away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Famalicao or Tondela been keeping clean sheets recently?
Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Tondela in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Famalicao have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Famalicao won 3-0 on 25 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Famalicao have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Tondela — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Famalicao
0
Draws
1
Tondela
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Tondela?
From 4 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 3, Tondela have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and Tondela last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Famalicao 3-0 Tondela.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and Tondela?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Famalicao see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Tondela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 46%, Tondela 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Famalicao) and 54% (Tondela).
On the defensive side: Famalicao keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Famalicao have failed to score in 36% of games; Tondela in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / Tondela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play Tondela?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Famalicao's recent matches and 64% of Tondela's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Famalicao vs Tondela usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Famalicao's recent games and 54% of Tondela's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Famalicao and Tondela tend to score early?
Famalicao have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Tondela in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Famalicao edge out Tondela 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Famalicao beat Tondela 2-1 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 24, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.45 xG and Tondela 1.02 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 0.95 / defence 1.00 against Tondela attack 0.76 / defence 1.43, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 46% | Draw 27% | Tondela 26%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 56%, Tondela 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Tondela's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Famalicao 1.00 PPG, Tondela 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Famalicao win broke the near-deadlock. Famalicao (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.