Estoril 0-1 Sporting CP – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Estoril take on Sporting CP.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Estoril and Sporting CP meet at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 September 2021 at 20:30 UTC.
Form
Estoril (all games): 4W 1D 0L across 5 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Estoril have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sporting CP have collected 2.20 PPG across 5 Primeira Liga outings this season: 3W 2D 0L. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sporting CP have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.60 vs 2.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Estoril have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sporting CP in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Estoril half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Sporting CP half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Estoril 60% and Sporting CP 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estoril 60% | Sporting CP 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 1.14 xG and Sporting CP 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 0.941 / defence 1.040 | Sporting CP attack 0.944 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.035 / away 1.122. Data: 5 Estoril games / 5 Sporting CP games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estoril 32% | Draw 37% | Sporting CP 31%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 3.12 | Draw 2.70 | Sporting CP 3.23. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Estoril 60% | Sporting CP 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs Sporting CP | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Sep 2021, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 32% | Draw 37% | Sporting CP 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 49% | xG Estoril 1.14 / Sporting CP 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 0.941 / def 1.040 | Sporting CP attack 0.944 / def 1.167 | league avg home 1.035 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Sporting CP xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estoril vs Sporting CP kick off?
Estoril vs Sporting CP kicked off at 20:30 on Sunday 19 September 2021 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs Sporting CP?
Estoril 0 - 1 Sporting CP.
Where is Estoril vs Sporting CP being played?
The match is being played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs Sporting CP part of?
Estoril vs Sporting CP is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs Sporting CP?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 32% chance of winning, Sporting CP a 31% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Sporting CP?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Estoril and Sporting CP will score (BTTS).
Will Estoril vs Sporting CP have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Sporting CP?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Estoril and Sporting CP in?
Estoril (all comps): 4W-1D-0L in 5 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Sporting CP (all comps): 3W-2D-0L in 5 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Estoril's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Sporting CP's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — Sporting CP's attack (0.94x) against Estoril's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.08
37%
2.71
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Estoril xG
Total xG
2.24
1.10
Sporting CP xG
3.08
32%
Home win
2.71
37%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
11%
9.26
10%
10.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 11.7 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs Sporting CP?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Estoril and Sporting CP expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Estoril and 1.10 for Sporting CP, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs Sporting CP?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Estoril come into this having played 5 games, going 4W 1D 0L for 2.60 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Estoril, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sporting CP sit at 2.20 PPG from 5 outings (3W 2D 0L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sporting CP, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.60 PPG for Estoril against 2.20 for Sporting CP. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Estoril are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game recently; Sporting CP are on 1.80 scored and 0.60 conceded. Estoril's scoring rate against Sporting CP's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Estoril have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Sporting CP in 60%.
Defensively: Estoril have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Sporting CP in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Early Season
Sporting CP
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estoril and Sporting CP in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 4W 1D 0L in their last 5 games (2.60 PPG), while Sporting CP have gone 3W 2D 0L in their last 5 (2.20 PPG).
Have Estoril or Sporting CP been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estoril have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Sporting CP in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Sporting CP have won the last 10 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sporting CP won 5-1 on 5 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estoril have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sporting CP — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Estoril
0
Draws
10
Sporting CP
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Sporting CP?
From 10 meetings on record, Estoril have won 0, Sporting CP have won 10, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Estoril and Sporting CP last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Sporting CP 3-0 Estoril.
Who has won more matches between Estoril and Sporting CP?
Sporting CP have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Sporting CP are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estoril 60%, Sporting CP 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Estoril) and 40% (Sporting CP).
On the defensive side: Estoril keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Sporting CP in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / Sporting CP away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estoril play Sporting CP?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Estoril's games and 60% of Sporting CP's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Estoril vs Sporting CP usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Estoril's recent games and 40% of Sporting CP's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estoril and Sporting CP tend to score early?
Estoril have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Sporting CP in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sporting CP defy the odds to beat Estoril 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sporting CP beat Estoril 0-1 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 6, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.14 xG and Sporting CP 1.10 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Estoril fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 0.94 / defence 1.04 against Sporting CP attack 0.94 / defence 1.17, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 32% | Draw 37% | Sporting CP 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Sporting CP win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 60%, Sporting CP 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estoril's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Sporting CP's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estoril 2.60 PPG, Sporting CP 2.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sporting CP win broke the near-deadlock. Estoril managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Sporting CP managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.