Estoril 0-1 SC Braga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SC Braga (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Estoril face SC Braga.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 29 as Estoril welcome SC Braga to Estádio António Coimbra da Mota. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 April 2024 at 20:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Estoril stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Estoril have posted 6W 0D 4L at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Estoril are significantly better at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota than their overall form suggests.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, SC Braga have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
SC Braga's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Form points away from home here. SC Braga's 2.00 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Estoril's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, SC Braga have the better historical record — 4 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for Estoril.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2023, ended 1–3 with SC Braga winning.
It is worth noting that SC Braga have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Estoril trading profile (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
SC Braga trading profile (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 47% versus SC Braga 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estoril 48% | SC Braga 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 1.61 xG and SC Braga 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 0.989 / defence 0.985 | SC Braga attack 1.424 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.279. SC Braga have an above-average attack strength of 1.424 — the away xG of 1.79 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 62 Estoril games / 62 SC Braga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estoril 34% | Draw 23% | SC Braga 42%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 2.94 | Draw 4.35 | SC Braga 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.79) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Braga are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Braga offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.41 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Estoril 40% | SC Braga 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs SC Braga | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 34% | Draw 23% | SC Braga 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG Estoril 1.61 / SC Braga 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 0.989 / def 0.985 | SC Braga attack 1.424 / def 1.103 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: SC Braga (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
1.79
SC Braga xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estoril vs SC Braga kick off?
Estoril vs SC Braga kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs SC Braga?
Estoril 0 - 1 SC Braga.
Where is Estoril vs SC Braga being played?
The match is being played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs SC Braga part of?
Estoril vs SC Braga is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs SC Braga?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 34% chance of winning, SC Braga a 42% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SC Braga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs SC Braga?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Estoril and SC Braga will score (BTTS).
Will Estoril vs SC Braga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and SC Braga?
Record (5 meetings): Estoril 0W | Draws 1 | SC Braga 4W.
What form are Estoril and SC Braga in?
Estoril (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. SC Braga (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Estoril's attack rating (0.99) and SC Braga's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SC Braga's attack versus Estoril's defence, projects 1.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Braga Win
34%
2.91
23%
4.26
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Estoril xG
Total xG
3.41
1.79
SC Braga xG
2.91
34%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.05
Clean Sheet
17%
6.02
20%
5.00
Win to Nil
6%
17.49
8%
11.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 9.6 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.7 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs SC Braga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Estoril and SC Braga expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Estoril and 1.79 for SC Braga, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs SC Braga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Estoril's recent record stands at 18W 10D 34L from 62 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-D in the last five.
SC Braga, meanwhile, have gone 42W 8D 12L across 62 games — 2.16 PPG, with W-D-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours SC Braga by 1.13 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Estoril heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Estoril have managed 14W 3D 14L from 31 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.03 PPG overall — Estoril are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
SC Braga's away record stands at 21W 3D 7L across 31 trips, a 2.13 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Braga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Estoril are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; SC Braga are on 2.18 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: SC Braga in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Current Season
SC Braga
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estoril and SC Braga in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 18W 10D 34L in their last 62 games (1.03 PPG), while SC Braga have gone 42W 8D 12L in their last 62 (2.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estoril at home or SC Braga away?
SC Braga's away record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estoril at home: 1.45 PPG; SC Braga away: 2.13 PPG.
Have Estoril or SC Braga been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estoril have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, SC Braga in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Apr 2023, when SC Braga won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Estoril's record when hosting SC Braga specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Estoril
3
Draws
6
SC Braga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and SC Braga?
From 10 meetings on record, Estoril have won 1, SC Braga have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Estoril and SC Braga last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when SC Braga 1-1 Estoril.
Who has won more matches between Estoril and SC Braga?
SC Braga have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
SC Braga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estoril 39%, SC Braga 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Estoril and 74% for SC Braga. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Estoril keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; SC Braga in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / SC Braga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estoril play SC Braga?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Estoril's recent matches and 55% of SC Braga's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estoril vs SC Braga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Estoril's matches and 74% of SC Braga's.
Do Estoril and SC Braga tend to score early?
Estoril have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, SC Braga in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Braga edge out Estoril 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Braga beat Estoril 0-1 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 29, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.61 xG and SC Braga 1.79 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Estoril fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 0.99 / defence 0.98 against SC Braga attack 1.42 / defence 1.10, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 34% | Draw 23% | SC Braga 42%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 48%, SC Braga 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estoril's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SC Braga's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 2.16 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Estoril (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward. SC Braga (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.