Estoril 1-3 Pacos Ferreira – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Estoril at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Estoril vs Pacos Ferreira encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pacos Ferreira make the trip to Estádio António Coimbra da Mota to face Estoril in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 February 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Estoril (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Estoril, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estoril at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Estoril are significantly better at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota than their overall form suggests.
Pacos Ferreira's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Pacos Ferreira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacos Ferreira's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Estoril, 0.70 for Pacos Ferreira — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Estoril 2W, Pacos Ferreira 0W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2022, ended 3–0 with Estoril winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Estoril half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Pacos Ferreira half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 44% versus Pacos Ferreira 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Estoril 37% | Pacos Ferreira 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 1.32 xG and Pacos Ferreira 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 0.908 / defence 1.140 | Pacos Ferreira attack 0.778 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 0.970. Data: 54 Estoril games / 54 Pacos Ferreira games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estoril 47% | Draw 28% | Pacos Ferreira 24%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Pacos Ferreira 4.17. Estoril hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Estoril are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estoril if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Estoril 40% | Pacos Ferreira 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs Pacos Ferreira | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 47% | Draw 28% | Pacos Ferreira 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG Estoril 1.32 / Pacos Ferreira 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 0.908 / def 1.140 | Pacos Ferreira attack 0.778 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.372 / away 0.970 • Poisson stance: Estoril (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Pacos Ferreira xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estoril vs Pacos Ferreira kick off?
Estoril vs Pacos Ferreira kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs Pacos Ferreira?
Estoril 1 - 3 Pacos Ferreira.
Where is Estoril vs Pacos Ferreira being played?
The match is being played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs Pacos Ferreira part of?
Estoril vs Pacos Ferreira is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 47% chance of winning, Pacos Ferreira a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Estoril the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Estoril and Pacos Ferreira will score (BTTS).
Will Estoril vs Pacos Ferreira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Pacos Ferreira?
Record (3 meetings): Estoril 2W | Draws 1 | Pacos Ferreira 0W.
What form are Estoril and Pacos Ferreira in?
Estoril (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Pacos Ferreira (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Estoril's attack rating (0.91) and Pacos Ferreira's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pacos Ferreira's attack (0.78x) against Estoril's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estoril Win
47%
2.11
28%
3.54
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Estoril xG
Total xG
2.18
0.86
Pacos Ferreira xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
20%
4.99
6%
15.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.8 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.5 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Estoril and Pacos Ferreira expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Estoril and 0.86 for Pacos Ferreira, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs Pacos Ferreira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Estoril come into this having played 54 games, going 15W 16D 23L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Estoril is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pacos Ferreira sit at 0.87 PPG from 54 outings (11W 14D 29L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Pacos Ferreira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Estoril against 0.87 for Pacos Ferreira. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Estoril's home form reads 7W 10D 9L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Pacos Ferreira have taken 0.81 points per game from 26 outings (5W 6D 15L).
Attack vs Defence
Estoril are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Pacos Ferreira are on 0.76 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Blended
Pacos Ferreira
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estoril and Pacos Ferreira in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 15W 16D 23L in their last 54 games (1.13 PPG), while Pacos Ferreira have gone 11W 14D 29L in their last 54 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estoril at home or Pacos Ferreira away?
Estoril's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estoril at home: 1.19 PPG; Pacos Ferreira away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Estoril won 0-3 on 26 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estoril have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Pacos Ferreira — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Estoril
1
Draws
1
Pacos Ferreira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Pacos Ferreira?
From 4 meetings on record, Estoril have won 2, Pacos Ferreira have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Estoril and Pacos Ferreira last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2023, when Estoril 1-3 Pacos Ferreira.
Who has won more matches between Estoril and Pacos Ferreira?
Estoril have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Pacos Ferreira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estoril 54%, Pacos Ferreira 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Estoril) and 31% (Pacos Ferreira).
On the defensive side: Estoril keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Estoril have failed to score in 27% of games; Pacos Ferreira in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / Pacos Ferreira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estoril play Pacos Ferreira?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Estoril's recent matches and 31% of Pacos Ferreira's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estoril vs Pacos Ferreira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Estoril's recent games and 31% of Pacos Ferreira's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estoril and Pacos Ferreira tend to score early?
Estoril have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Pacos Ferreira in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pacos Ferreira cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Estoril.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacos Ferreira beat Estoril 1-3 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 21, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.32 xG and Pacos Ferreira 0.86 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Pacos Ferreira outscored their 0.86 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 0.91 / defence 1.14 against Pacos Ferreira attack 0.78 / defence 1.06, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 47% | Draw 28% | Pacos Ferreira 24%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Pacos Ferreira win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 37%, Pacos Ferreira 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estoril's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Pacos Ferreira's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estoril 1.13 PPG, Pacos Ferreira 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pacos Ferreira win broke the near-deadlock. Estoril (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pacos Ferreira (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.58 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.