Estoril 0-0 Vitória SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Estoril at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Estoril vs Vitória SC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio António Coimbra da Mota plays host to Estoril versus Vitória SC in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Friday 13 August 2021 at 20:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Estoril have collected 3.00 PPG across 1 Primeira Liga outings this season: 1W 0D 0L. Last five: W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Estoril have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Vitória SC's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Vitória SC have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 3.00 in Estoril's favour (3.00 vs 0.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using overall form) — Estoril have seen both teams score in just 0% of their games, Vitória SC in only 0%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 1.22 xG and Vitória SC 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 0.978 / defence 1.150 | Vitória SC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.088 / away 0.779. Data: 1 Estoril games / 1 Vitória SC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Estoril 47% | Draw 30% | Vitória SC 23%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Vitória SC 4.35. Estoril hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Estoril are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estoril if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.98 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs Vitória SC | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Friday 13 Aug 2021, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 47% | Draw 30% | Vitória SC 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 38% | xG Estoril 1.22 / Vitória SC 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 0.978 / def 1.150 | Vitória SC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.088 / away 0.779 • Poisson stance: Estoril (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Vitória SC xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estoril vs Vitória SC kick off?
Estoril vs Vitória SC kicked off at 20:15 on Friday 13 August 2021 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs Vitória SC?
Estoril 0 - 0 Vitória SC.
Where is Estoril vs Vitória SC being played?
The match is being played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs Vitória SC part of?
Estoril vs Vitória SC is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs Vitória SC?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 47% chance of winning, Vitória SC a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Estoril the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Vitória SC?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Estoril and Vitória SC will score (BTTS).
Will Estoril vs Vitória SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Vitória SC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Estoril and Vitória SC in?
Estoril (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W. Vitória SC (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Estoril's attack at 0.98x the league average against Vitória SC's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vitória SC's attack (0.85x) against Estoril's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.2%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estoril Win
47%
2.12
30%
3.35
23%
4.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Estoril xG
Total xG
1.98
0.76
Vitória SC xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
4.34
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
22%
4.55
7%
14.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 10.5 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 12.8 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs Vitória SC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Estoril and Vitória SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Estoril and 0.76 for Vitória SC, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs Vitória SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Estoril's recent record stands at 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, a 3.00 PPG return, with W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Estoril, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Vitória SC, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 1L across 1 games — 0.00 PPG, with L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Vitória SC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Estoril by 3.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vitória SC heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Estoril are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Vitória SC are on 0.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Estoril's scoring rate against Vitória SC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Estoril have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Vitória SC in 0%.
Defensively: Estoril have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Early Season
Vitória SC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estoril and Vitória SC in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Vitória SC have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
Have Estoril or Vitória SC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estoril have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Vitória SC in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estoril have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Vitória SC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Estoril
1
Draws
7
Vitória SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Vitória SC?
From 10 meetings on record, Estoril have won 2, Vitória SC have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Estoril and Vitória SC last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Estoril 4-2 Vitória SC.
Who has won more matches between Estoril and Vitória SC?
Vitória SC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / Vitória SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estoril play Vitória SC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Estoril's recent matches and 0% of Vitória SC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estoril vs Vitória SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Estoril's recent games and 0% of Vitória SC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estoril and Vitória SC tend to score early?
Estoril have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Vitória SC in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Estoril's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 2, as Estoril and Vitória SC drew 0-0 in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.22 xG and Vitória SC 0.76 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Estoril fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Vitória SC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 47% | Draw 30% | Vitória SC 23%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 0%, Vitória SC 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Estoril arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Estoril managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Vitória SC conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.