Estoril 1-3 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Benfica (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Estoril face Benfica.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 34 as Estoril welcome Benfica to Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 May 2026 at 20:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Estoril stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Estoril have posted 4W 3D 3L at Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Estoril are significantly better at Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota than their overall form suggests.
Benfica — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Benfica's form when playing away from home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Benfica are 1.60 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Benfica have the better historical record — 8 wins from 8 previous contests against 0 for Estoril.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Jan 2026, ended 1–3 with Benfica winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Benfica have won 8 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Estoril trading profile (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Benfica trading profile (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 57% versus Benfica 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Estoril 66% | Benfica 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 1.15 xG and Benfica 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 1.017 / defence 1.215 | Benfica attack 1.330 / defence 0.775. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.136. Benfica's defence strength of 0.775 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Benfica have an above-average attack strength of 1.330 — the away xG of 1.84 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 67 Estoril games / 67 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estoril 24% | Draw 23% | Benfica 53%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 4.17 | Draw 4.35 | Benfica 1.89. Benfica hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benfica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Estoril 70% | Benfica 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 24% | Draw 23% | Benfica 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Estoril 1.15 / Benfica 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 1.017 / def 1.215 | Benfica attack 1.330 / def 0.775 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Benfica (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Benfica xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estoril vs Benfica kick off?
Estoril vs Benfica kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 16 May 2026 at Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs Benfica?
Estoril 1 - 3 Benfica.
Where is Estoril vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs Benfica part of?
Estoril vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 24% chance of winning, Benfica a 53% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Estoril and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will Estoril vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Benfica?
Record (8 meetings): Estoril 0W | Draws 0 | Benfica 8W.
What form are Estoril and Benfica in?
Estoril (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Benfica (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Estoril's attack rating (1.02) and Benfica's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus Estoril's defence, projects 1.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
24%
4.22
23%
4.38
53%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Estoril xG
Total xG
2.98
1.84
Benfica xG
4.22
24%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
1.87
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
16%
6.27
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
4%
26.50
17%
5.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 9.3 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.1 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Estoril and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Estoril and 1.84 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs Benfica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Estoril's recent record stands at 22W 19D 26L from 67 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-D in the last five.
Benfica, meanwhile, have gone 47W 16D 4L across 67 games — 2.34 PPG, with W-W-W-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Benfica by 1.07 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Estoril heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Estoril have managed 13W 9D 11L from 33 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Benfica's away record stands at 22W 8D 3L across 33 trips, a 2.24 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Estoril are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.31 scored and 0.78 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Current Season
Benfica
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estoril and Benfica in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 22W 19D 26L in their last 67 games (1.27 PPG), while Benfica have gone 47W 16D 4L in their last 67 (2.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estoril at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estoril at home: 1.45 PPG; Benfica away: 2.24 PPG.
Have Estoril or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estoril have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Benfica in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Estoril and Benfica runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 31 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Benfica have taken the last 10 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2022, when Benfica won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Estoril's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Estoril
0
Draws
10
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Benfica?
From 10 meetings on record, Estoril have won 0, Benfica have won 10, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Estoril and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2026, when Benfica 2-1 Estoril.
Who has won more matches between Estoril and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estoril 61%, Benfica 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Estoril and 61% for Benfica. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Benfica in 39%; Estoril have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estoril play Benfica?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Estoril's games and 54% of Benfica's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Estoril vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Estoril's matches and 61% of Benfica's.
Do Estoril and Benfica tend to score early?
Estoril have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Benfica in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Benfica cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Estoril.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Estoril 1-3 at Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 34, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.15 xG and Benfica 1.84 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Benfica outscored their 1.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 1.02 / defence 1.22 against Benfica attack 1.33 / defence 0.78, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 24% | Draw 23% | Benfica 53%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 66%, Benfica 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estoril's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Benfica's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.34 PPG against 1.27. That form edge translated into the three points. Estoril (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Benfica (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.