Chaves 1-0 Casa Pia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chaves at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chaves vs Casa Pia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chaves host Casa Pia at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 29 April 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Chaves — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Chaves's home record at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Casa Pia have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Casa Pia have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Chaves) versus 0.90 (Casa Pia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Chaves have won 1, Casa Pia 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Nov 2022, ended 2–1 with Chaves winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Chaves in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Casa Pia in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chaves 52% versus Casa Pia 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Chaves 34% | Casa Pia 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chaves 1.48 xG and Casa Pia 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chaves attack 0.953 / defence 1.138 | Casa Pia attack 0.725 / defence 1.192. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.051. Data: 29 Chaves games / 29 Casa Pia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chaves 52% | Draw 26% | Casa Pia 22%. Fair-value odds: Chaves 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Casa Pia 4.55. Chaves hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chaves as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chaves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Chaves 60% | Casa Pia 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chaves vs Casa Pia | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Apr 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chaves 52% | Draw 26% | Casa Pia 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 45% | xG Chaves 1.48 / Casa Pia 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Chaves attack 0.953 / def 1.138 | Casa Pia attack 0.725 / def 1.192 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.051 • Poisson stance: Chaves (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Chaves xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Casa Pia xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chaves vs Casa Pia kick off?
Chaves vs Casa Pia kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 29 April 2023 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What was the final score in Chaves vs Casa Pia?
Chaves 1 - 0 Casa Pia.
Where is Chaves vs Casa Pia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What competition is Chaves vs Casa Pia part of?
Chaves vs Casa Pia is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Chaves vs Casa Pia?
Our statistical model gives Chaves a 52% chance of winning, Casa Pia a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Chaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chaves vs Casa Pia?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Chaves and Casa Pia will score (BTTS).
Will Chaves vs Casa Pia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and Casa Pia?
Record (1 meetings): Chaves 1W | Draws 0 | Casa Pia 0W.
What form are Chaves and Casa Pia in?
Chaves (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Casa Pia (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Chaves's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Casa Pia's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. The same calculation in reverse, Casa Pia's attack versus Chaves's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chaves Win
52%
1.94
26%
3.79
22%
4.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Chaves xG
Total xG
2.35
0.87
Casa Pia xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
4.54
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
22%
4.61
5%
19.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.3 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chaves vs Casa Pia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Chaves and Casa Pia expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Chaves and 0.87 for Casa Pia, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Chaves vs Casa Pia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 29 outings, Chaves have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 9W 10D 10L record — W-L-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Casa Pia's form line: 11W 6D 12L from 29 games, 1.34 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chaves on 1.28 PPG, Casa Pia on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Chaves have posted 1.21 PPG from 14 outings (4W 5D 5L).
On the road, Casa Pia have gone 5W 3D 6L from 14 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Chaves are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Casa Pia are on 0.93 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Casa Pia in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chaves
Current Season
Casa Pia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chaves and Casa Pia in coming into this match?
Chaves have gone 9W 10D 10L in their last 29 games (1.28 PPG), while Casa Pia have gone 11W 6D 12L in their last 29 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chaves at home or Casa Pia away?
Casa Pia's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chaves at home: 1.21 PPG; Casa Pia away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Chaves or Casa Pia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chaves have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Casa Pia in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chaves and Casa Pia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Casa Pia go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Chaves's record when hosting Casa Pia specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Chaves
0
Draws
2
Casa Pia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and Casa Pia?
From 4 meetings on record, Chaves have won 2, Casa Pia have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chaves and Casa Pia last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2024, when Casa Pia 3-1 Chaves.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Casa Pia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chaves 64%, Casa Pia 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Chaves) and 43% (Casa Pia).
On the defensive side: Casa Pia in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chaves home games / Casa Pia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chaves play Casa Pia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Chaves's recent matches and 43% of Casa Pia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chaves vs Casa Pia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Chaves's recent games and 43% of Casa Pia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chaves and Casa Pia tend to score early?
Chaves have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Casa Pia in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chaves edge out Casa Pia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chaves beat Casa Pia 1-0 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, Regular Season - 30, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chaves 1.48 xG and Casa Pia 0.87 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Casa Pia landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chaves attack 0.95 / defence 1.14 against Casa Pia attack 0.72 / defence 1.19, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chaves 52% | Draw 26% | Casa Pia 22%, with Chaves to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chaves 34%, Casa Pia 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chaves's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Casa Pia's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chaves 1.28 PPG, Casa Pia 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chaves win broke the near-deadlock. Chaves (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Casa Pia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.