Chaves 1-4 Boavista – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chaves at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chaves vs Boavista encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chaves host Boavista at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 May 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chaves stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chaves have posted 5W 1D 4L at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Boavista have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Boavista have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Chaves have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Chaves, 0 for Boavista and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Chaves trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Boavista trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chaves 46% versus Boavista 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chaves 31% | Boavista 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chaves 1.69 xG and Boavista 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chaves attack 0.943 / defence 0.966 | Boavista attack 0.968 / defence 1.318. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 1.090. Boavista bring a strong defensive rating of 1.318 — this is suppressing Chaves's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Chaves games / 67 Boavista games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chaves 53% | Draw 24% | Boavista 23%. Fair-value odds: Chaves 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Boavista 4.35. Chaves hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chaves are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chaves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Chaves 50% | Boavista 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chaves vs Boavista | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira • Kick-off: Saturday 27 May 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chaves 53% | Draw 24% | Boavista 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG Chaves 1.69 / Boavista 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Chaves attack 0.943 / def 0.966 | Boavista attack 0.968 / def 1.318 | league avg home 1.361 / away 1.090 • Poisson stance: Chaves (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Chaves xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Boavista xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chaves vs Boavista kick off?
Chaves vs Boavista kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 27 May 2023 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What was the final score in Chaves vs Boavista?
Chaves 1 - 4 Boavista.
Where is Chaves vs Boavista being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What competition is Chaves vs Boavista part of?
Chaves vs Boavista is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Chaves vs Boavista?
Our statistical model gives Chaves a 53% chance of winning, Boavista a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Chaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chaves vs Boavista?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Chaves and Boavista will score (BTTS).
Will Chaves vs Boavista have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and Boavista?
Record (1 meetings): Chaves 0W | Draws 1 | Boavista 0W.
What form are Chaves and Boavista in?
Chaves (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Boavista (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Chaves's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Boavista's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. The same calculation in reverse, Boavista's attack versus Chaves's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chaves Win
53%
1.88
24%
4.15
23%
4.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Chaves xG
Total xG
2.71
1.02
Boavista xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
4.39
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
18%
5.42
Win to Nil
19%
5.22
4%
23.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.5 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chaves vs Boavista?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Chaves and Boavista expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Chaves and 1.02 for Boavista, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Chaves vs Boavista?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chaves come into this having played 35 games, going 13W 10D 12L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Boavista sit at 1.23 PPG from 35 outings (11W 10D 14L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chaves on 1.40 PPG, Boavista on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Chaves's home form reads 7W 5D 5L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Boavista have taken 0.71 points per game from 17 outings (3W 3D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Boavista's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chaves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chaves are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Boavista are on 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Boavista in 63%.
Last 35 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chaves
Current Season
Boavista
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chaves and Boavista in coming into this match?
Chaves have gone 13W 10D 12L in their last 35 games (1.40 PPG), while Boavista have gone 11W 10D 14L in their last 35 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chaves at home or Boavista away?
Chaves's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chaves at home: 1.53 PPG; Boavista away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Chaves or Boavista been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chaves have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Boavista in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 May 2023, when Boavista won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chaves's record when hosting Boavista specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Chaves
1
Draws
2
Boavista
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and Boavista?
From 4 meetings on record, Chaves have won 1, Boavista have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chaves and Boavista last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2024, when Chaves 2-1 Boavista.
Who has won more matches between Chaves and Boavista?
Boavista have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Boavista are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chaves 53%, Boavista 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Chaves) and 65% (Boavista).
On the defensive side: Chaves keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Boavista in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chaves home games / Boavista away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chaves play Boavista?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Chaves's games and 59% of Boavista's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chaves vs Boavista usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Chaves's recent games and 65% of Boavista's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chaves and Boavista tend to score early?
Chaves have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Boavista in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Boavista run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Chaves.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Boavista beat Chaves 1-4 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, Regular Season - 34, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chaves 1.69 xG and Boavista 1.02 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Boavista outscored their 1.02 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chaves attack 0.94 / defence 0.97 against Boavista attack 0.97 / defence 1.32, drawn from 33/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chaves 53% | Draw 24% | Boavista 23%, with Chaves to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Boavista win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chaves 31%, Boavista 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chaves's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Boavista's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chaves 1.40 PPG, Boavista 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Boavista win broke the near-deadlock. Chaves (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Boavista (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.