Chaves 2-1 Boavista – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Boavista at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Chaves face Boavista.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chaves host Boavista at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira in Primeira Liga (matchday 22). Kick-off is Saturday 17 February 2024 at 15:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Chaves stand at 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
In front of their own supporters, Chaves have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Boavista have recorded 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Boavista have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Chaves at 0.70 PPG versus Boavista's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Chaves's games and 60% of Boavista's (from Chaves's last 10 home games and Boavista's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Chaves have won 0, Boavista 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 18 Sep 2023, ended Chaves 1–4 Boavista — a Boavista win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Chaves trading profile (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Boavista trading profile (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chaves 51% versus Boavista 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chaves 46% | Boavista 58%). Note also that Boavista surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Chaves recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chaves 1.21 xG and Boavista 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chaves attack 0.768 / defence 1.205 | Boavista attack 0.913 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.213. Chaves's attack rating of 0.768 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.21. Chaves's defence rating of 1.205 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Boavista's projected output up. Data: built from Chaves's last 55 games and Boavista's last 55.
Result probabilities: Chaves 34% | Draw 27% | Boavista 40%. Fair-value odds: Chaves 2.97 | Draw 3.75 | Boavista 2.52. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Boavista are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Boavista offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — low conviction — though recent form (Chaves's last 10 home games and Boavista's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches point the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chaves 70% (last 10 home games) | Boavista 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chaves vs Boavista | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 22 | Venue: Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira • Kick-off: Saturday 17 February 2024 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chaves 34% | Draw 27% | Boavista 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Chaves 1.21 / Boavista 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Chaves attack 0.768 / def 1.205 | Boavista attack 0.913 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Boavista (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Chaves xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Boavista xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Chaves vs Boavista FAQs
What time does Chaves vs Boavista kick off?
Chaves vs Boavista kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What was the final score in Chaves vs Boavista?
Chaves 2 - 1 Boavista.
Where is Chaves vs Boavista being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What competition is Chaves vs Boavista part of?
Chaves vs Boavista is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 22) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Chaves vs Boavista?
Our statistical model gives Chaves a 34% chance of winning, Boavista a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Boavista the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chaves vs Boavista?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Chaves and Boavista will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Chaves vs Boavista have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Chaves's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Boavista's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. The same calculation in reverse, Boavista's attack versus Chaves's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Chaves's last 55 games and Boavista's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Boavista Win
34%
2.97
27%
3.75
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Chaves xG
Total xG
2.54
1.33
Boavista xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
9%
11.27
12%
8.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.5 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.7 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Chaves vs Boavista Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Chaves vs Boavista?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Chaves and Boavista expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Chaves and 1.33 for Boavista, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Chaves vs Boavista?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chaves come into this having played 55 games, going 15W 15D 25L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-L.
On the other side, Boavista sit at 1.24 PPG from 55 outings (18W 14D 23L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chaves on 1.09 PPG, Boavista on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Chaves's home form reads 8W 8D 11L across their last 27 home games, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Boavista have taken 0.93 points per game from their last 27 away games (7W 4D 16L).
Goals in Recent Form
Chaves are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Boavista are on 1.31 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Boavista in 65%.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chaves
Blended
Boavista
Blended
Chaves (Home) vs Boavista (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Chaves
Blended
Boavista
Blended
❓ Chaves vs Boavista Form FAQs
What form are Chaves and Boavista in coming into this match?
Chaves have gone 15W 15D 25L in their last 55 games (1.09 PPG), while Boavista have gone 18W 14D 23L in their last 55 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chaves at home or Boavista away?
Chaves's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chaves at home: 1.19 PPG; Boavista away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from January 2023. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent in our data was on 17 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 May 2023, when Boavista won Chaves 1-4 Boavista.
Chaves's record when hosting Boavista specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Chaves
1
Draws
2
Boavista
Recent Meetings
❓ Chaves vs Boavista H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and Boavista?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Chaves have won 1, Boavista have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Chaves and Boavista last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 February 2024: Chaves 2-1 Boavista.
Who has won more matches between Chaves and Boavista?
Boavista have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Boavista are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chaves 63%, Boavista 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Chaves) and 59% (Boavista).
On the defensive side: Boavista in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chaves home games / Boavista away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Chaves vs Boavista Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Chaves and Boavista matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Chaves's games and 59% of Boavista's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Chaves and Boavista matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Chaves's recent games and 59% of Boavista's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chaves and Boavista matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Chaves's recent matches and 63% of Boavista's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Chaves defy the odds to beat Boavista 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chaves beat Boavista 2-1 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, Regular Season - 22, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chaves 1.21 xG and Boavista 1.33 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chaves attack 0.77 / defence 1.21 against Boavista attack 0.91 / defence 1.02, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chaves 34% | Draw 27% | Boavista 40%, with Boavista to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Chaves win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chaves 46%, Boavista 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chaves's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Boavista's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chaves 1.09 PPG, Boavista 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chaves win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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