Chaves 2-1 Boavista – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Boavista at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chaves vs Boavista encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chaves host Boavista at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 February 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chaves stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Chaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chaves have posted 2W 3D 5L at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Boavista have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Boavista, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Boavista have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Chaves at 0.70 PPG versus Boavista's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Chaves register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Boavista in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Chaves, 2 for Boavista and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2023, ended 1–4 with Boavista winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Chaves trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Boavista trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chaves 51% versus Boavista 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chaves 46% | Boavista 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chaves 1.21 xG and Boavista 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chaves attack 0.768 / defence 1.205 | Boavista attack 0.913 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.213. Chaves's attack strength of 0.768 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 55 Chaves games / 55 Boavista games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chaves 34% | Draw 27% | Boavista 40%. Fair-value odds: Chaves 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Boavista 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Boavista are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Boavista offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Chaves 70% | Boavista 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chaves vs Boavista | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chaves 34% | Draw 27% | Boavista 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Chaves 1.21 / Boavista 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Chaves attack 0.768 / def 1.205 | Boavista attack 0.913 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Boavista (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Chaves xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Boavista xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chaves vs Boavista kick off?
Chaves vs Boavista kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What was the final score in Chaves vs Boavista?
Chaves 2 - 1 Boavista.
Where is Chaves vs Boavista being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What competition is Chaves vs Boavista part of?
Chaves vs Boavista is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Chaves vs Boavista?
Our statistical model gives Chaves a 34% chance of winning, Boavista a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Boavista the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chaves vs Boavista?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Chaves and Boavista will score (BTTS).
Will Chaves vs Boavista have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and Boavista?
Record (3 meetings): Chaves 0W | Draws 1 | Boavista 2W.
What form are Chaves and Boavista in?
Chaves (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Boavista (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Chaves's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Boavista's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. The same calculation in reverse, Boavista's attack versus Chaves's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Boavista Win
34%
2.97
27%
3.75
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Chaves xG
Total xG
2.54
1.33
Boavista xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
9%
11.27
12%
8.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.5 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.7 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chaves vs Boavista?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Chaves and Boavista expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Chaves and 1.33 for Boavista, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Chaves vs Boavista?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chaves come into this having played 55 games, going 15W 15D 25L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-L. The sample for Chaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Boavista sit at 1.24 PPG from 55 outings (18W 14D 23L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Boavista is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chaves on 1.09 PPG, Boavista on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Chaves's home form reads 8W 8D 11L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Boavista have taken 0.93 points per game from 27 outings (7W 4D 16L).
Goals in Recent Form
Chaves are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Boavista are on 1.31 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Boavista in 65%.
Last 55 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chaves
Blended
Boavista
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chaves and Boavista in coming into this match?
Chaves have gone 15W 15D 25L in their last 55 games (1.09 PPG), while Boavista have gone 18W 14D 23L in their last 55 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chaves at home or Boavista away?
Chaves's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chaves at home: 1.19 PPG; Boavista away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 May 2023, when Boavista won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chaves's record when hosting Boavista specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Chaves
1
Draws
2
Boavista
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and Boavista?
From 4 meetings on record, Chaves have won 1, Boavista have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chaves and Boavista last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2024, when Chaves 2-1 Boavista.
Who has won more matches between Chaves and Boavista?
Boavista have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Boavista are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chaves 63%, Boavista 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Chaves) and 59% (Boavista).
On the defensive side: Boavista in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chaves home games / Boavista away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chaves play Boavista?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Chaves's games and 59% of Boavista's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chaves vs Boavista usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Chaves's recent games and 59% of Boavista's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chaves and Boavista tend to score early?
Chaves have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Boavista in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Chaves defy the odds to beat Boavista 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chaves beat Boavista 2-1 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, Regular Season - 22, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chaves 1.21 xG and Boavista 1.33 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chaves attack 0.77 / defence 1.21 against Boavista attack 0.91 / defence 1.02, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chaves 34% | Draw 27% | Boavista 40%, with Boavista to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Chaves win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chaves 46%, Boavista 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chaves's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Boavista's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chaves 1.09 PPG, Boavista 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chaves win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.