Casa Pia 0-1 Vizela – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Casa Pia at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Casa Pia face Vizela.

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Analysis

Vizela make the trip to Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior to face Casa Pia in Primeira Liga (matchday 10). The match kicks off on Sunday 5 November 2023 at 15:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Casa Pia have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

In front of their own supporters, Casa Pia have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Vizela's record over their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Vizela have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Casa Pia against 0.60 for Vizela. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Vizela edge it 2 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Apr 2023, ended Casa Pia 1–3 Vizela — a Vizela win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Casa Pia — key trading statistics (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 29% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

Vizela — key trading statistics (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 48% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Casa Pia 42% versus Vizela 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Casa Pia 35% | Vizela 44%). Note also that Vizela surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Casa Pia recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 1.04 xG and Vizela 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 0.715 / defence 0.913 | Vizela attack 0.873 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.538 / away 1.303. Casa Pia's attack rating of 0.715 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.04. Data: built from Casa Pia's last 43 games and Vizela's last 43.

Result probabilities: Casa Pia 35% | Draw 30% | Vizela 35%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 2.86 | Draw 3.32 | Vizela 2.86. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 35% to win, with the draw at 30%. There is no result lean here.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Casa Pia 35% and Vizela 35%, with the draw at 30%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.

Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 66% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Casa Pia 60% (last 10 home games) | Vizela 20% (last 10 away games).

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