Casa Pia 1-0 GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Casa Pia at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente encounter.

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Analysis

GIL Vicente make the trip to Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior to face Casa Pia in Primeira Liga (matchday 23). The match kicks off on Saturday 22 February 2025 at 15:30 UK time.

Form

Casa Pia (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Casa Pia's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

GIL Vicente have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

GIL Vicente away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Form favours the hosts. Casa Pia's 2.00 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of GIL Vicente's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H Analysis

Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, GIL Vicente have the stronger record — 3 wins to Casa Pia's 0, with 2 draws.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 22 Sep 2024, ended Casa Pia 1–1 GIL Vicente — a draw.

GIL Vicente have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.

Trading Data

Casa Pia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

GIL Vicente goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Casa Pia 50% versus GIL Vicente 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Casa Pia 45% | GIL Vicente 50%). Note also that GIL Vicente surrender HT leads in 47% of cases while Casa Pia recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 1.75 xG and GIL Vicente 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 1.071 / defence 0.870 | GIL Vicente attack 0.711 / defence 1.212. League average goals — home 1.349 / away 1.176. GIL Vicente's defence rating of 1.212 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Casa Pia's projected output up. GIL Vicente's attack rating of 0.711 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.73. Data: built from Casa Pia's last 56 games and GIL Vicente's last 56.

Result probabilities: Casa Pia 61% | Draw 24% | GIL Vicente 15%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 1.63 | Draw 4.19 | GIL Vicente 6.82. The model has a clear lean to Casa Pia (61%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

GIL Vicente have the better head-to-head record in our data (3 wins to 0), but Casa Pia carry stronger current form — do not let the head-to-head record alone dictate your assessment.

Poisson rates Casa Pia as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Casa Pia 70% (last 10 home games) | GIL Vicente 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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