Boavista 0-0 AVS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AVS at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Boavista vs AVS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees AVS travel to Estádio do Bessa Século XXI to take on Boavista. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 December 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Boavista stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Boavista, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Boavista have posted 0W 6D 4L at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
AVS — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for AVS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AVS's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 3L across 7 road games this term (0.86 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Boavista 0.70 PPG, AVS 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Boavista in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
AVS in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Boavista 44% versus AVS 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Boavista 44% | AVS 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Boavista 0.98 xG and AVS 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boavista attack 0.624 / defence 1.216 | AVS attack 0.774 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.413 / away 1.116. Boavista's attack strength of 0.624 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 48 Boavista games / 14 AVS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Boavista 33% | Draw 31% | AVS 37%. Fair-value odds: Boavista 3.03 | Draw 3.23 | AVS 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AVS are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AVS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates are neutral: Boavista 40% | AVS 71%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Boavista vs AVS | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estádio do Bessa Século XXI • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Dec 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Boavista 33% | Draw 31% | AVS 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Boavista 0.98 / AVS 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Boavista attack 0.624 / def 1.216 | AVS attack 0.774 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.413 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: AVS (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Boavista xG
Expected Goals
1.05
AVS xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Boavista vs AVS kick off?
Boavista vs AVS kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 21 December 2024 at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI.
What was the final score in Boavista vs AVS?
Boavista 0 - 0 AVS.
Where is Boavista vs AVS being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI.
What competition is Boavista vs AVS part of?
Boavista vs AVS is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Boavista vs AVS?
Our statistical model gives Boavista a 33% chance of winning, AVS a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making AVS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Boavista vs AVS?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Boavista and AVS will score (BTTS).
Will Boavista vs AVS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Boavista and AVS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Boavista and AVS in?
Boavista (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. AVS (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Boavista's attack at 0.62x the league average against AVS's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AVS's attack versus Boavista's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AVS Win
33%
3.04
31%
3.27
37%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Boavista xG
Total xG
2.03
1.05
AVS xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.74
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
12%
8.68
14%
7.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 13.8 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Boavista vs AVS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Boavista and AVS expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Boavista and 1.05 for AVS, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Boavista vs AVS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Boavista's recent record stands at 2W 6D 8L from 16 games, a 0.75 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Boavista is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AVS, meanwhile, have gone 4W 6D 6L across 16 games — 1.12 PPG, with L-D-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for AVS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Boavista on 0.75 PPG, AVS on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Boavista have managed 0W 3D 4L from 7 games — 0.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AVS's away record stands at 1W 3D 3L across 7 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AVS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Boavista are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; AVS are on 0.94 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 16 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Boavista
Blended
AVS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Boavista and AVS in coming into this match?
Boavista have gone 2W 6D 8L in their last 16 games (0.75 PPG), while AVS have gone 4W 6D 6L in their last 16 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Boavista at home or AVS away?
AVS's away record (0.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Boavista at home: 0.43 PPG; AVS away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Boavista and AVS runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Boavista
1
Draws
0
AVS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Boavista and AVS?
From 2 meetings on record, Boavista have won 1, AVS have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Boavista and AVS last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2025, when AVS 1-2 Boavista.
Who has won more matches between Boavista and AVS?
Boavista have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Boavista are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
AVS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Boavista 29%, AVS 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Boavista) and 57% (AVS).
On the defensive side: Boavista have failed to score in 71% of games; AVS in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Boavista home games / AVS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Boavista play AVS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Boavista's recent matches and 71% of AVS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Boavista vs AVS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Boavista's recent games and 57% of AVS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Boavista and AVS tend to score early?
Boavista have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, AVS in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Boavista's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Boavista and AVS finished level at 0-0 at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI, Regular Season - 15, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Boavista 0.98 xG and AVS 1.05 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Boavista fell 1.0 short of their projected output. AVS landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boavista attack 0.62 / defence 1.22 against AVS attack 0.77 / defence 1.11, drawn from 48/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Boavista 33% | Draw 31% | AVS 37%, with AVS to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boavista 44%, AVS 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Boavista's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AVS's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Boavista 0.75 PPG, AVS 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Boavista (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. AVS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.