Benfica 5-0 Maritimo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Benfica at 74% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Benfica vs Maritimo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Maritimo travel to Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica to take on Benfica. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 September 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Benfica stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Benfica have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Benfica's home record at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Maritimo have recorded 0W 2D 8L from 10 outings — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Maritimo have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Maritimo's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 exceeds their overall 0.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Benfica are in the better shape of the two on current Primeira Liga data — 2.30 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 0.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Benfica register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Maritimo in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Benfica have won 2, Maritimo 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2022, ended 1–0 with Benfica winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Benfica trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Maritimo trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 55% versus Maritimo 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 60% | Maritimo 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 2.83 xG and Maritimo 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.431 / defence 0.991 | Maritimo attack 0.905 / defence 1.518. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.159. Benfica carry an above-average attack strength of 1.431 — their λ of 2.83 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Maritimo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.518 — this is suppressing Benfica's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Benfica games / 40 Maritimo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benfica 74% | Draw 14% | Maritimo 11%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 1.35 | Draw 7.14 | Maritimo 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (74%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.87. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.87 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.83 / 1.04) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Benfica are the pick at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 74% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Benfica 60% | Maritimo 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs Maritimo | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Sep 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 74% | Draw 14% | Maritimo 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 61% | xG Benfica 2.83 / Maritimo 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.431 / def 0.991 | Maritimo attack 0.905 / def 1.518 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Benfica (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.83
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Maritimo xG
61%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benfica vs Maritimo kick off?
Benfica vs Maritimo kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 18 September 2022 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What was the final score in Benfica vs Maritimo?
Benfica 5 - 0 Maritimo.
Where is Benfica vs Maritimo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What competition is Benfica vs Maritimo part of?
Benfica vs Maritimo is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs Maritimo?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 74% chance of winning, Maritimo a 11% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Maritimo?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Benfica and Maritimo will score (BTTS).
Will Benfica vs Maritimo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Maritimo?
Record (2 meetings): Benfica 2W | Draws 0 | Maritimo 0W.
What form are Benfica and Maritimo in?
Benfica (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Maritimo (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Benfica's attack at 1.43x the league average against Maritimo's defence at 1.52x — combine the two and it projects 2.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Maritimo's attack versus Benfica's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (8.4%), 3-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
74%
1.34
14%
6.90
11%
9.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.83
Benfica xG
Total xG
3.87
1.04
Maritimo xG
1.34
74%
Home win
6.90
14%
Draw
9.03
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
6%
17.01
Win to Nil
26%
3.80
1%
153.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs Maritimo?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Benfica and Maritimo expected to score?
The model projects 2.83 expected goals for Benfica and 1.04 for Maritimo, a combined total of 3.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs Maritimo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, Benfica have picked up 2.30 PPG on a 29W 5D 6L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Benfica, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Maritimo's form line: 9W 11D 20L from 40 games, 0.95 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Maritimo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Benfica are the form team by 1.35 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Maritimo.
Venue Form
On home soil, Benfica have posted 2.10 PPG from 20 outings (13W 3D 4L).
On the road, Maritimo have gone 5W 5D 10L from 20 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Benfica are averaging 2.30 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Maritimo are on 1.08 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Early Season
Maritimo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benfica and Maritimo in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 29W 5D 6L in their last 40 games (2.30 PPG), while Maritimo have gone 9W 11D 20L in their last 40 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benfica at home or Maritimo away?
Benfica's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benfica at home: 2.10 PPG; Maritimo away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Benfica or Maritimo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Maritimo in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Benfica have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Dec 2021, when Benfica won 7-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Benfica's record when hosting Maritimo specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Benfica
0
Draws
0
Maritimo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Maritimo?
From 4 meetings on record, Benfica have won 4, Maritimo have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and Maritimo last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2023, when Maritimo 0-3 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Benfica and Maritimo?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Maritimo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Benfica at 65%, Maritimo at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Benfica and 60% for Maritimo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / Maritimo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benfica play Maritimo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Benfica's games and 65% of Maritimo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Benfica vs Maritimo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Benfica's matches and 60% of Maritimo's.
Do Benfica and Maritimo tend to score early?
Benfica have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Maritimo in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Benfica run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Maritimo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Maritimo 5-0 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 7, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 2.83 xG and Maritimo 1.04 xG, a combined 3.87. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Benfica beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Maritimo landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.43 / defence 0.99 against Maritimo attack 0.91 / defence 1.52, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benfica 74% | Draw 14% | Maritimo 11%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 74%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 60%, Maritimo 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benfica's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Maritimo's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Benfica (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Maritimo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.