Benfica vs GIL Vicente – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Benfica (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Benfica face GIL Vicente.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees GIL Vicente travel to to take on Benfica. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 September 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Benfica have gone 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Benfica have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Benfica's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
GIL Vicente — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. GIL Vicente have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, GIL Vicente have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Benfica carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Benfica have dominated this rivalry, winning 9 of 10 past contests while GIL Vicente have managed just 1 wins.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2026, ended 2–1 with Benfica winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Benfica and goals. The home side's 9 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Benfica trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
GIL Vicente trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 60% versus GIL Vicente 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 73% | GIL Vicente 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 1.46 xG and GIL Vicente 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.232 / defence 1.008 | GIL Vicente attack 0.790 / defence 0.886. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 1.260. Data: 37 Benfica games / 37 GIL Vicente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benfica 48% | Draw 26% | GIL Vicente 26%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | GIL Vicente 3.85. Benfica hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benfica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Benfica 60% | GIL Vicente 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Sep 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 48% | Draw 26% | GIL Vicente 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Benfica 1.46 / GIL Vicente 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.232 / def 1.008 | GIL Vicente attack 0.790 / def 0.886 | league avg home 1.337 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Benfica (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
1.00
GIL Vicente xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benfica vs GIL Vicente kick off?
Benfica vs GIL Vicente is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Sunday 13 September 2026.
What competition is Benfica vs GIL Vicente part of?
Benfica vs GIL Vicente is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 48% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Benfica and GIL Vicente will score (BTTS).
Will Benfica vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and GIL Vicente?
Record (10 meetings): Benfica 9W | Draws 0 | GIL Vicente 1W.
What form are Benfica and GIL Vicente in?
Benfica (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. GIL Vicente (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Benfica's attack rating (1.23) and GIL Vicente's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, GIL Vicente's attack versus Benfica's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
48%
2.10
26%
3.79
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Benfica xG
Total xG
2.46
1.00
GIL Vicente xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
17%
5.72
6%
16.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.5 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Benfica and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Benfica and 1.00 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs GIL Vicente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 37 outings, Benfica have picked up 2.35 PPG on a 25W 12D 0L record — D-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Benfica, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
GIL Vicente's form line: 15W 12D 10L from 37 games, 1.54 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for GIL Vicente, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Benfica are the form team by 0.81 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against GIL Vicente.
Venue Form
On home soil, Benfica have posted 2.22 PPG from 18 outings (11W 7D 0L).
On the road, GIL Vicente have gone 4W 9D 5L from 18 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Benfica are averaging 2.30 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.35 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; GIL Vicente in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Early Season
GIL Vicente
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benfica and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 25W 12D 0L in their last 37 games (2.35 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 15W 12D 10L in their last 37 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benfica at home or GIL Vicente away?
Benfica's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benfica at home: 2.22 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Benfica or GIL Vicente been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, GIL Vicente in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 2 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Benfica have won the last 8 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2024, when Benfica won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Benfica's record when hosting GIL Vicente specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Benfica
0
Draws
1
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and GIL Vicente?
From 10 meetings on record, Benfica have won 9, GIL Vicente have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and GIL Vicente last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2026, when GIL Vicente 1-2 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Benfica and GIL Vicente?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benfica 67%, GIL Vicente 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Benfica and 50% for GIL Vicente. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Benfica keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; GIL Vicente in 39%; GIL Vicente in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benfica play GIL Vicente?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Benfica's games and 44% of GIL Vicente's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Benfica vs GIL Vicente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Benfica's matches and 50% of GIL Vicente's.
Do Benfica and GIL Vicente tend to score early?
Benfica have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, GIL Vicente in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.