Arouca 5-0 Vizela – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vizela at 37%, yet in-form Arouca provide a compelling counter-argument — this Arouca vs Vizela fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Municipal de Arouca plays host to Arouca versus Vizela in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Sunday 28 January 2024 at 20:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Arouca have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Arouca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arouca's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Estádio Municipal de Arouca this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Vizela's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vizela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vizela's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Arouca's favour (1.30 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Arouca lead 2W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Arouca — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Vizela — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arouca 38% versus Vizela 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arouca 36% | Vizela 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arouca 1.14 xG and Vizela 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arouca attack 0.832 / defence 1.082 | Vizela attack 0.826 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.339. Data: 52 Arouca games / 52 Vizela games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arouca 34% | Draw 28% | Vizela 37%. Fair-value odds: Arouca 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Vizela 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vizela are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Arouca (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vizela if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Arouca 30% | Vizela 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arouca vs Vizela | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Arouca • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jan 2024, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arouca 34% | Draw 28% | Vizela 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Arouca 1.14 / Vizela 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Arouca attack 0.832 / def 1.082 | Vizela attack 0.826 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Vizela (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Arouca xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Vizela xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arouca vs Vizela kick off?
Arouca vs Vizela kicked off at 20:30 on Sunday 28 January 2024 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What was the final score in Arouca vs Vizela?
Arouca 5 - 0 Vizela.
Where is Arouca vs Vizela being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What competition is Arouca vs Vizela part of?
Arouca vs Vizela is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Arouca vs Vizela?
Our statistical model gives Arouca a 34% chance of winning, Vizela a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Vizela the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arouca vs Vizela?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Arouca and Vizela will score (BTTS).
Will Arouca vs Vizela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Vizela?
Record (5 meetings): Arouca 2W | Draws 1 | Vizela 2W.
What form are Arouca and Vizela in?
Arouca (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Vizela (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Arouca's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Vizela's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — Vizela's attack (0.83x) against Arouca's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vizela Win
34%
2.90
28%
3.51
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Arouca xG
Total xG
2.34
1.20
Vizela xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
10%
9.60
12%
8.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 11.5 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arouca vs Vizela?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Arouca and Vizela expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Arouca and 1.20 for Vizela, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Arouca vs Vizela?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Arouca come into this having played 52 games, going 20W 13D 19L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W. The sample for Arouca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Vizela sit at 1.02 PPG from 52 outings (13W 14D 25L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Vizela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Arouca against 1.02 for Vizela. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Arouca's home form reads 11W 4D 10L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Vizela have taken 1.12 points per game from 25 outings (7W 7D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Arouca are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Vizela are on 1.00 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arouca
Blended
Vizela
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arouca and Vizela in coming into this match?
Arouca have gone 20W 13D 19L in their last 52 games (1.40 PPG), while Vizela have gone 13W 14D 25L in their last 52 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arouca at home or Vizela away?
Arouca's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arouca at home: 1.48 PPG; Vizela away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Arouca or Vizela been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arouca have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Vizela in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Arouca won 5-0 on 28 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Arouca have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Vizela — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Arouca
1
Draws
2
Vizela
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Vizela?
From 6 meetings on record, Arouca have won 3, Vizela have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Arouca and Vizela last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2024, when Arouca 5-0 Vizela.
Who has won more matches between Arouca and Vizela?
Arouca have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Vizela see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arouca 28%, Vizela 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Arouca) and 36% (Vizela).
On the defensive side: Arouca keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Vizela in 32%; Arouca have failed to score in 36% of games; Vizela in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arouca home games / Vizela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arouca play Vizela?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 28% of Arouca's recent matches and 44% of Vizela's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arouca vs Vizela usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Arouca's recent games and 36% of Vizela's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Arouca and Vizela tend to score early?
Arouca have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Vizela in 48% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Arouca run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Vizela.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arouca beat Vizela 5-0 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Regular Season - 19, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arouca 1.14 xG and Vizela 1.20 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Arouca beat their projection by 3.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Vizela landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arouca attack 0.83 / defence 1.08 against Vizela attack 0.83 / defence 0.93, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arouca 34% | Draw 28% | Vizela 37%, with Vizela to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Arouca win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arouca 36%, Vizela 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arouca's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Vizela's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Arouca 1.40 PPG, Vizela 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Arouca win broke the near-deadlock. Arouca (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Vizela (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.