Arouca 1-0 Santa Clara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Arouca at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arouca vs Santa Clara fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Santa Clara travel to Estádio Municipal de Arouca to take on Arouca. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 February 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Arouca stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Arouca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Arouca have posted 5W 1D 4L at Estádio Municipal de Arouca — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Santa Clara have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Santa Clara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Santa Clara's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Arouca carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Arouca's 30% rate and Santa Clara's 20% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Arouca, 1 for Santa Clara and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2022, ended 2–1 with Arouca winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Arouca in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Santa Clara in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arouca 51% versus Santa Clara 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arouca 49% | Santa Clara 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arouca 1.36 xG and Santa Clara 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arouca attack 1.069 / defence 1.115 | Santa Clara attack 0.716 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 0.988. Data: 53 Arouca games / 53 Santa Clara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arouca 50% | Draw 28% | Santa Clara 22%. Fair-value odds: Arouca 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Santa Clara 4.55. Arouca hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Arouca are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Arouca offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Arouca 30% | Santa Clara 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arouca vs Santa Clara | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Arouca • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arouca 50% | Draw 28% | Santa Clara 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 41% | xG Arouca 1.36 / Santa Clara 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Arouca attack 1.069 / def 1.115 | Santa Clara attack 0.716 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.411 / away 0.988 • Poisson stance: Arouca (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Arouca xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Santa Clara xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arouca vs Santa Clara kick off?
Arouca vs Santa Clara kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What was the final score in Arouca vs Santa Clara?
Arouca 1 - 0 Santa Clara.
Where is Arouca vs Santa Clara being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What competition is Arouca vs Santa Clara part of?
Arouca vs Santa Clara is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Arouca vs Santa Clara?
Our statistical model gives Arouca a 50% chance of winning, Santa Clara a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Arouca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arouca vs Santa Clara?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Arouca and Santa Clara will score (BTTS).
Will Arouca vs Santa Clara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Santa Clara?
Record (3 meetings): Arouca 1W | Draws 1 | Santa Clara 1W.
What form are Arouca and Santa Clara in?
Arouca (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Santa Clara (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Arouca's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Santa Clara's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, Santa Clara's attack versus Arouca's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.1%), 0-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arouca Win
50%
1.99
28%
3.58
22%
4.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Arouca xG
Total xG
2.15
0.79
Santa Clara xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
4.61
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
23%
4.37
6%
17.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 9.2 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 12.5 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 8.5 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arouca vs Santa Clara?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Arouca and Santa Clara expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Arouca and 0.79 for Santa Clara, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Arouca vs Santa Clara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Arouca's recent record stands at 14W 16D 23L from 53 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Arouca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Santa Clara, meanwhile, have gone 12W 19D 22L across 53 games — 1.04 PPG, with L-D-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Santa Clara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Arouca on 1.09 PPG, Santa Clara on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Arouca have managed 10W 5D 11L from 26 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Santa Clara's away record stands at 2W 9D 15L across 26 trips, a 0.58 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Santa Clara's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arouca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Arouca are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Santa Clara are on 0.98 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arouca
Blended
Santa Clara
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arouca and Santa Clara in coming into this match?
Arouca have gone 14W 16D 23L in their last 53 games (1.09 PPG), while Santa Clara have gone 12W 19D 22L in their last 53 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arouca at home or Santa Clara away?
Arouca's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arouca at home: 1.35 PPG; Santa Clara away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Arouca's record when hosting Santa Clara specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Arouca
3
Draws
2
Santa Clara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Santa Clara?
From 8 meetings on record, Arouca have won 3, Santa Clara have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Arouca and Santa Clara last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Arouca 2-2 Santa Clara.
Who has won more matches between Arouca and Santa Clara?
Arouca have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Santa Clara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arouca 42%, Santa Clara 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Arouca) and 46% (Santa Clara).
On the defensive side: Arouca have failed to score in 35% of games; Santa Clara in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arouca home games / Santa Clara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arouca play Santa Clara?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Arouca's recent matches and 46% of Santa Clara's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arouca vs Santa Clara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Arouca's recent games and 46% of Santa Clara's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Arouca and Santa Clara tend to score early?
Arouca have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Santa Clara in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Arouca edge out Santa Clara 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arouca beat Santa Clara 1-0 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Regular Season - 20, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arouca 1.36 xG and Santa Clara 0.79 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arouca attack 1.07 / defence 1.11 against Santa Clara attack 0.72 / defence 0.90, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arouca 50% | Draw 28% | Santa Clara 22%, with Arouca to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arouca 49%, Santa Clara 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arouca's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Santa Clara's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Arouca 1.09 PPG, Santa Clara 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Arouca win broke the near-deadlock. Arouca (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.