Arouca 2-1 GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates GIL Vicente at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Arouca vs GIL Vicente encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Municipal de Arouca plays host to Arouca versus GIL Vicente in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Saturday 2 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Arouca (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Arouca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Arouca have posted 2W 1D 7L at Estádio Municipal de Arouca — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
GIL Vicente have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 5W 5D 0L. Last five: W D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, GIL Vicente have posted 6W 4D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. GIL Vicente are 1.10 PPG clear of Arouca in recent Primeira Liga fixtures (2.00 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Arouca lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Arouca goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
GIL Vicente goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arouca 56% versus GIL Vicente 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arouca 56% | GIL Vicente 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arouca 0.55 xG and GIL Vicente 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arouca attack 0.638 / defence 1.523 | GIL Vicente attack 0.927 / defence 0.851. League average goals — home 1.020 / away 1.268. Arouca's attack strength of 0.638 is below the league average — the 0.55 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 27 Arouca games / 27 GIL Vicente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arouca 9% | Draw 26% | GIL Vicente 65%. Fair-value odds: Arouca 11.11 | Draw 3.85 | GIL Vicente 1.54. The model has a clear lean to GIL Vicente (65%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates GIL Vicente as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Arouca 40% | GIL Vicente 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arouca vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Arouca • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arouca 9% | Draw 26% | GIL Vicente 65% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 38% | xG Arouca 0.55 / GIL Vicente 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Arouca attack 0.638 / def 1.523 | GIL Vicente attack 0.927 / def 0.851 | league avg home 1.020 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: GIL Vicente (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.55
Arouca xG
Expected Goals
1.79
GIL Vicente xG
38%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arouca vs GIL Vicente kick off?
Arouca vs GIL Vicente kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What was the final score in Arouca vs GIL Vicente?
Arouca 2 - 1 GIL Vicente.
Where is Arouca vs GIL Vicente being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What competition is Arouca vs GIL Vicente part of?
Arouca vs GIL Vicente is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Arouca vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives Arouca a 9% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 65% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making GIL Vicente the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arouca vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Arouca and GIL Vicente will score (BTTS).
Will Arouca vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and GIL Vicente?
Record (1 meetings): Arouca 0W | Draws 1 | GIL Vicente 0W.
What form are Arouca and GIL Vicente in?
Arouca (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. GIL Vicente (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Arouca's attack at 0.64x the league average against GIL Vicente's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 0.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — GIL Vicente's attack (0.93x) against Arouca's defence (1.52x) — and the away total comes out at 1.79.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (15.4%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
9%
11.63
26%
3.82
65%
1.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
15.4%
Away win
0 – 0
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.55
Arouca xG
Total xG
2.34
1.79
GIL Vicente xG
11.63
9%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
1.53
65%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
17%
5.99
57%
1.74
Win to Nil
1%
69.64
37%
2.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 17.2 | 15.4 | 9.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 9.5 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arouca vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Arouca and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 0.55 expected goals for Arouca and 1.79 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Arouca vs GIL Vicente?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Arouca's recent record stands at 5W 8D 14L from 27 games, a 0.85 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Arouca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIL Vicente, meanwhile, have gone 12W 10D 5L across 27 games — 1.70 PPG, with W-D-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours GIL Vicente by 0.85 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Arouca heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Arouca have managed 3W 2D 8L from 13 games — 0.85 PPG in front of their own supporters.
GIL Vicente's away record stands at 7W 5D 1L across 13 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIL Vicente come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Arouca are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.41 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: GIL Vicente in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arouca
Blended
GIL Vicente
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arouca and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
Arouca have gone 5W 8D 14L in their last 27 games (0.85 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 12W 10D 5L in their last 27 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arouca at home or GIL Vicente away?
GIL Vicente's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arouca at home: 0.85 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Arouca or GIL Vicente been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arouca have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, GIL Vicente in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Arouca won 3-0 on 16 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Arouca have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against GIL Vicente — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Arouca
6
Draws
0
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and GIL Vicente?
From 10 meetings on record, Arouca have won 4, GIL Vicente have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Arouca and GIL Vicente last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when GIL Vicente 1-3 Arouca.
Who has won more matches between Arouca and GIL Vicente?
Arouca have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
GIL Vicente see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arouca 46%, GIL Vicente 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Arouca) and 38% (GIL Vicente).
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente in 38%; Arouca have failed to score in 46% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arouca home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arouca play GIL Vicente?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Arouca's recent matches and 54% of GIL Vicente's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arouca vs GIL Vicente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Arouca's recent games and 38% of GIL Vicente's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Arouca and GIL Vicente tend to score early?
Arouca have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, GIL Vicente in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Arouca defy the odds to beat GIL Vicente 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arouca beat GIL Vicente 2-1 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Regular Season - 28, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arouca 0.55 xG and GIL Vicente 1.79 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Arouca beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arouca attack 0.64 / defence 1.52 against GIL Vicente attack 0.93 / defence 0.85, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arouca 9% | Draw 26% | GIL Vicente 65%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a Arouca win, an outcome the model had rated at just 9% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arouca 56%, GIL Vicente 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arouca's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
GIL Vicente's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, GIL Vicente arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 0.85. Form was overturned, with Arouca winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Arouca (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.