Alverca 1-1 Estrela – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alverca at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alverca vs Estrela fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
FC Alverca Sports Complex plays host to Alverca versus Estrela in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 31 January 2026 at 20:30 UTC.
Current Form
Alverca's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Alverca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alverca's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at FC Alverca Sports Complex this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Estrela (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.60. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Estrela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Estrela have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Alverca 0W, Estrela 0W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Alverca half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Estrela half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alverca 42% versus Estrela 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alverca 58% | Estrela 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alverca 1.56 xG and Estrela 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alverca attack 0.789 / defence 1.101 | Estrela attack 1.028 / defence 1.303. League average goals — home 1.522 / away 1.270. Alverca's attack strength of 0.789 is below the league average — the 1.56 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Estrela bring a strong defensive rating of 1.303 — this is suppressing Alverca's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Alverca games / 53 Estrela games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alverca 41% | Draw 24% | Estrela 35%. Fair-value odds: Alverca 2.44 | Draw 4.17 | Estrela 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Alverca as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alverca if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Alverca 30% | Estrela 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alverca vs Estrela | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: FC Alverca Sports Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alverca 41% | Draw 24% | Estrela 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Alverca 1.56 / Estrela 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Alverca attack 0.789 / def 1.101 | Estrela attack 1.028 / def 1.303 | league avg home 1.522 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: Alverca (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Alverca xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Estrela xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alverca vs Estrela kick off?
Alverca vs Estrela kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at FC Alverca Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Alverca vs Estrela?
Alverca 1 - 1 Estrela.
Where is Alverca vs Estrela being played?
The match is being played at FC Alverca Sports Complex.
What competition is Alverca vs Estrela part of?
Alverca vs Estrela is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Alverca vs Estrela?
Our statistical model gives Alverca a 41% chance of winning, Estrela a 35% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Alverca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alverca vs Estrela?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Alverca and Estrela will score (BTTS).
Will Alverca vs Estrela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alverca and Estrela?
Record (1 meetings): Alverca 0W | Draws 1 | Estrela 0W.
What form are Alverca and Estrela in?
Alverca (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Estrela (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.60 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Alverca's attack rating (0.79) and Estrela's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Estrela's attack (1.03x) against Alverca's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 19/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Alverca Win
41%
2.46
24%
4.13
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Alverca xG
Total xG
3.00
1.44
Estrela xG
2.46
41%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
10%
10.36
7%
13.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.2 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.7 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alverca vs Estrela?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Alverca and Estrela expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Alverca and 1.44 for Estrela, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Alverca vs Estrela?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Alverca's recent record stands at 7W 2D 10L from 19 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Alverca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Estrela, meanwhile, have gone 4W 7D 8L across 19 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Estrela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Alverca against 1.00 for Estrela. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Alverca have managed 5W 1D 3L from 9 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Alverca are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Estrela's away record stands at 2W 3D 4L across 9 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alverca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Alverca are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Estrela are on 1.21 scored and 1.89 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alverca
Blended
Estrela
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alverca and Estrela in coming into this match?
Alverca have gone 7W 2D 10L in their last 19 games (1.21 PPG), while Estrela have gone 4W 7D 8L in their last 19 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alverca at home or Estrela away?
Alverca's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alverca at home: 1.78 PPG; Estrela away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since August 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alverca have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Estrela — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Alverca
3
Draws
0
Estrela
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alverca and Estrela?
From 3 meetings on record, Alverca have won 0, Estrela have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alverca and Estrela last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Alverca 2-2 Estrela.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Alverca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Estrela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alverca 33%, Estrela 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Alverca) and 56% (Estrela).
On the defensive side: Alverca keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Estrela in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alverca home games / Estrela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alverca play Estrela?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Alverca's recent matches and 44% of Estrela's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alverca vs Estrela usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Alverca's recent games and 56% of Estrela's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alverca and Estrela tend to score early?
Alverca have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Estrela in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alverca and Estrela share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alverca and Estrela finished level at 1-1 at FC Alverca Sports Complex, Regular Season - 20, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alverca 1.56 xG and Estrela 1.44 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alverca attack 0.79 / defence 1.10 against Estrela attack 1.03 / defence 1.30, drawn from 19/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alverca 41% | Draw 24% | Estrela 35%, with Alverca to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alverca 58%, Estrela 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alverca's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Estrela's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alverca 1.21 PPG, Estrela 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Estrela (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.