Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Zaglebie Lubin (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Zaglebie Lubin face Radomiak Radom.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Radomiak Radom travel to KGHM Zaglebie Arena to take on Zaglebie Lubin. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 April 2026, 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zaglebie Lubin at KGHM Zaglebie Arena this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at KGHM Zaglebie Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Radomiak Radom — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Radomiak Radom have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Zaglebie Lubin are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Zaglebie Lubin have won 5, Radomiak Radom 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 1–3 with Radomiak Radom winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Zaglebie Lubin in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Radomiak Radom in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zaglebie Lubin 52% and Radomiak Radom 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 49% | Radomiak Radom 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.51 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.915 / defence 0.877 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.974 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.437 / away 1.066. Data: 61 Zaglebie Lubin games / 61 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 50% | Draw 28% | Radomiak Radom 22%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Radomiak Radom 4.55. Zaglebie Lubin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zaglebie Lubin as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Zaglebie Lubin 30% | Radomiak Radom 90% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: KGHM Zaglebie Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Apr 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 50% | Draw 28% | Radomiak Radom 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.51 / Radomiak Radom 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.915 / def 0.877 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.974 / def 1.147 | league avg home 1.437 / away 1.066 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Radomiak Radom xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 11 April 2026 at KGHM Zaglebie Arena.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom?
Zaglebie Lubin 1 - 0 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at KGHM Zaglebie Arena.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 50% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom?
Record (8 meetings): Zaglebie Lubin 5W | Draws 0 | Radomiak Radom 3W.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Zaglebie Lubin's attack rating (0.92) and Radomiak Radom's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Zaglebie Lubin's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
50%
2.00
28%
3.53
22%
4.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.42
0.91
Radomiak Radom xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
4.62
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
22%
4.51
Win to Nil
20%
4.97
5%
20.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.2 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 0.91 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zaglebie Lubin come into this having played 61 games, going 21W 14D 26L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-L. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Radomiak Radom sit at 1.23 PPG from 61 outings (19W 18D 24L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zaglebie Lubin on 1.26 PPG, Radomiak Radom on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Zaglebie Lubin's home form reads 12W 8D 10L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Radomiak Radom have taken 0.90 points per game from 30 outings (6W 9D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zaglebie Lubin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.49 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom in 70%.
Last 61 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 21W 14D 26L in their last 61 games (1.26 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 19W 18D 24L in their last 61 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Zaglebie Lubin's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.47 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 May 2022, when Zaglebie Lubin won 1-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zaglebie Lubin's record when hosting Radomiak Radom specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Zaglebie Lubin
1
Draws
3
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom?
From 10 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 6, Radomiak Radom have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Radomiak Radom 0-0 Zaglebie Lubin.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom?
Zaglebie Lubin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 50%, Radomiak Radom 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Zaglebie Lubin and 70% for Radomiak Radom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Radomiak Radom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Zaglebie Lubin's games and 73% of Radomiak Radom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Zaglebie Lubin's matches and 70% of Radomiak Radom's.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zaglebie Lubin edge out Radomiak Radom 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin beat Radomiak Radom 1-0 at KGHM Zaglebie Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.51 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.91 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Radomiak Radom landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.92 / defence 0.88 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.97 / defence 1.15, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 50% | Draw 28% | Radomiak Radom 22%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 49%, Radomiak Radom 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.26 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zaglebie Lubin win broke the near-deadlock. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.