Zaglebie Lubin 1-2 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa meet at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 February 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Zaglebie Lubin (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zaglebie Lubin at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Legia Warszawa's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Legia Warszawa away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Legia Warszawa are 0.70 PPG clear of Zaglebie Lubin in recent Ekstraklasa fixtures (1.80 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Zaglebie Lubin lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Jul 2022, ended 0–2 with Legia Warszawa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Zaglebie Lubin — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Legia Warszawa — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 48% versus Legia Warszawa 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 60% | Legia Warszawa 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.07 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.833 / defence 1.140 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.004 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.221. Data: 52 Zaglebie Lubin games / 52 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 27% | Draw 30% | Legia Warszawa 43%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 3.70 | Draw 3.33 | Legia Warszawa 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Legia Warszawa are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Zaglebie Lubin 50% | Legia Warszawa 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion Zagłębia Lubin • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Feb 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 27% | Draw 30% | Legia Warszawa 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.07 / Legia Warszawa 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.833 / def 1.140 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.004 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Legia Warszawa xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 4 February 2023 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa?
Zaglebie Lubin 1 - 2 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 27% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa?
Record (2 meetings): Zaglebie Lubin 0W | Draws 0 | Legia Warszawa 2W.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Zaglebie Lubin's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Legia Warszawa's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. Flip it around — Legia Warszawa's attack (1.00x) against Zaglebie Lubin's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
27%
3.71
30%
3.29
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.47
1.40
Legia Warszawa xG
3.71
27%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
25%
4.05
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
7%
15.01
15%
6.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 11.8 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.40 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 52 outings, Zaglebie Lubin have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 16W 10D 26L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Legia Warszawa's form line: 23W 9D 20L from 52 games, 1.50 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Zaglebie Lubin against 1.50 for Legia Warszawa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Zaglebie Lubin have posted 1.19 PPG from 26 outings (8W 7D 11L).
On the road, Legia Warszawa have gone 6W 7D 13L from 26 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Legia Warszawa's season.
Attack vs Defence
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.40 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 16W 10D 26L in their last 52 games (1.12 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 23W 9D 20L in their last 52 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Zaglebie Lubin's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.19 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Legia Warszawa have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Legia Warszawa won 0-3 on 3 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Legia Warszawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Zaglebie Lubin
0
Draws
9
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 1, Legia Warszawa have won 9, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Legia Warszawa 3-1 Zaglebie Lubin.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 62%, Legia Warszawa 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 50% (Legia Warszawa).
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin have failed to score in 31% of games; Legia Warszawa in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Legia Warszawa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Zaglebie Lubin's games and 54% of Legia Warszawa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 50% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Legia Warszawa edge out Zaglebie Lubin 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Zaglebie Lubin 1-2 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 19, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.07 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.40 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.83 / defence 1.14 against Legia Warszawa attack 1.00 / defence 1.01, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 27% | Draw 30% | Legia Warszawa 43%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 60%, Legia Warszawa 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.12 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Legia Warszawa win broke the near-deadlock. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.