Zaglebie Lubin 0-2 GKS Katowice – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Zaglebie Lubin at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zaglebie Lubin vs GKS Katowice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zaglebie Lubin host GKS Katowice at KGHM Zaglebie Arena in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 30 January 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Zaglebie Lubin — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Zaglebie Lubin have posted 5W 4D 1L at KGHM Zaglebie Arena — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, GKS Katowice stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for GKS Katowice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, GKS Katowice have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
On current form, Zaglebie Lubin have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Zaglebie Lubin, 1 for GKS Katowice and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jul 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Zaglebie Lubin in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
GKS Katowice in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 57% versus GKS Katowice 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 53% | GKS Katowice 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.87 xG and GKS Katowice 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.133 / defence 0.901 | GKS Katowice attack 1.057 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.185. Data: 52 Zaglebie Lubin games / 51 GKS Katowice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 53% | Draw 25% | GKS Katowice 22%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | GKS Katowice 4.55. Zaglebie Lubin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zaglebie Lubin at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Zaglebie Lubin 70% | GKS Katowice 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs GKS Katowice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: KGHM Zaglebie Arena • Kick-off: Friday 30 Jan 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 53% | Draw 25% | GKS Katowice 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 58% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.87 / GKS Katowice 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.133 / def 0.901 | GKS Katowice attack 1.057 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
1.13
GKS Katowice xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs GKS Katowice kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs GKS Katowice kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 30 January 2026 at KGHM Zaglebie Arena.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs GKS Katowice?
Zaglebie Lubin 0 - 2 GKS Katowice.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs GKS Katowice being played?
The match is being played at KGHM Zaglebie Arena.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs GKS Katowice part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs GKS Katowice is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs GKS Katowice?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 53% chance of winning, GKS Katowice a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs GKS Katowice?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and GKS Katowice will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs GKS Katowice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and GKS Katowice?
Record (3 meetings): Zaglebie Lubin 1W | Draws 1 | GKS Katowice 1W.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and GKS Katowice in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. GKS Katowice (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Zaglebie Lubin's attack at 1.13x the league average against GKS Katowice's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.87 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, GKS Katowice's attack versus Zaglebie Lubin's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
53%
1.88
25%
3.98
22%
4.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
3.00
1.13
GKS Katowice xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
4.64
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
15%
6.46
Win to Nil
17%
5.80
3%
29.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.5 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs GKS Katowice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and GKS Katowice expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.13 for GKS Katowice, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs GKS Katowice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zaglebie Lubin come into this having played 51 games, going 17W 13D 21L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-W. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, GKS Katowice sit at 1.35 PPG from 51 outings (20W 9D 22L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for GKS Katowice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zaglebie Lubin on 1.25 PPG, GKS Katowice on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Zaglebie Lubin's home form reads 11W 6D 8L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, GKS Katowice have taken 1.08 points per game from 25 outings (8W 3D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zaglebie Lubin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; GKS Katowice are on 1.41 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
GKS Katowice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and GKS Katowice in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 17W 13D 21L in their last 51 games (1.25 PPG), while GKS Katowice have gone 20W 9D 22L in their last 51 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or GKS Katowice away?
Zaglebie Lubin's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.56 PPG; GKS Katowice away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Zaglebie Lubin's record when hosting GKS Katowice specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Zaglebie Lubin
1
Draws
2
GKS Katowice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and GKS Katowice?
From 4 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 1, GKS Katowice have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and GKS Katowice last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Zaglebie Lubin 0-2 GKS Katowice.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and GKS Katowice?
GKS Katowice have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
GKS Katowice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 56%, GKS Katowice 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Zaglebie Lubin and 60% for GKS Katowice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GKS Katowice in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / GKS Katowice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play GKS Katowice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 44% of GKS Katowice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs GKS Katowice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Zaglebie Lubin's matches and 60% of GKS Katowice's.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and GKS Katowice tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, GKS Katowice in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
GKS Katowice cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Zaglebie Lubin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GKS Katowice beat Zaglebie Lubin 0-2 at KGHM Zaglebie Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.87 xG and GKS Katowice 1.13 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Zaglebie Lubin fell 1.9 short of their projected output. GKS Katowice outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.13 / defence 0.90 against GKS Katowice attack 1.06 / defence 1.02, drawn from 52/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 53% | Draw 25% | GKS Katowice 22%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a GKS Katowice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 53%, GKS Katowice 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
GKS Katowice's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.25 PPG, GKS Katowice 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GKS Katowice win broke the near-deadlock. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward. GKS Katowice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.