Wisla Plock vs Slask Wroclaw – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Wisla Plock take on Slask Wroclaw.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Slask Wroclaw make the trip to Orlen Stadion to face Wisla Plock in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 December 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Wisla Plock (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Wisla Plock have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Wisla Plock's home record at Orlen Stadion: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Slask Wroclaw have collected 1.00 PPG across 6 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 1W 3D 2L. Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Slask Wroclaw have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Slask Wroclaw's away record: 0W 1D 2L from 3 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Slask Wroclaw are 0.50 PPG clear of Wisla Plock in recent Ekstraklasa fixtures (1.00 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Slask Wroclaw, who have claimed 4 wins from 4 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2023, ended 1–3 with Slask Wroclaw winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Slask Wroclaw have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Wisla Plock — key trading statistics (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Slask Wroclaw — key trading statistics (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wisla Plock 50% and Slask Wroclaw 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Wisla Plock 67% | Slask Wroclaw 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.00 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 0.614 / defence 0.997 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.866 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.303. Wisla Plock's attack strength of 0.614 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 39 Wisla Plock games / 6 Slask Wroclaw games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 29% | Draw 36% | Slask Wroclaw 35%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 3.45 | Draw 2.78 | Slask Wroclaw 2.86. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Wisla Plock 10% | Slask Wroclaw 100%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Slask Wroclaw | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Orlen Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Dec 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 29% | Draw 36% | Slask Wroclaw 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 46% | xG Wisla Plock 1.00 / Slask Wroclaw 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 0.614 / def 0.997 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.866 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.542 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Slask Wroclaw xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Slask Wroclaw kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Slask Wroclaw is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 5 December 2026 at Orlen Stadion.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Slask Wroclaw being played?
The match is being played at Orlen Stadion.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Slask Wroclaw part of?
Wisla Plock vs Slask Wroclaw is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 29% chance of winning, Slask Wroclaw a 35% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Wisla Plock and Slask Wroclaw will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Slask Wroclaw have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Slask Wroclaw?
Record (4 meetings): Wisla Plock 0W | Draws 0 | Slask Wroclaw 4W.
What form are Wisla Plock and Slask Wroclaw in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 1W-3D-2L in 6 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Wisla Plock's attack rating (0.61) and Slask Wroclaw's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Slask Wroclaw's attack (0.87x) against Wisla Plock's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 39/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.49
36%
2.75
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
2.13
1.12
Slask Wroclaw xG
3.49
29%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
9%
10.74
13%
7.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Slask Wroclaw expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 1.12 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Slask Wroclaw?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Wisla Plock come into this having played 6 games, going 1W 2D 3L for 0.83 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Wisla Plock, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Slask Wroclaw sit at 1.00 PPG from 6 outings (1W 3D 2L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.83 PPG for Wisla Plock against 1.00 for Slask Wroclaw. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wisla Plock are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Slask Wroclaw are on 1.33 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slask Wroclaw in 83%.
Last 6 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Early Season
Slask Wroclaw
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Slask Wroclaw in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 games (0.83 PPG), while Slask Wroclaw have gone 1W 3D 2L in their last 6 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Slask Wroclaw have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wisla Plock have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Slask Wroclaw — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Wisla Plock
0
Draws
4
Slask Wroclaw
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Slask Wroclaw?
From 4 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 0, Slask Wroclaw have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Slask Wroclaw last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2023, when Slask Wroclaw 3-1 Wisla Plock.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Plock and Slask Wroclaw?
Slask Wroclaw have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 50% for Wisla Plock, 83% for Slask Wroclaw — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Wisla Plock and 67% for Slask Wroclaw. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Slask Wroclaw away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Slask Wroclaw?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Wisla Plock's games and 83% of Slask Wroclaw's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wisla Plock vs Slask Wroclaw usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Wisla Plock's matches and 67% of Slask Wroclaw's.
Do Wisla Plock and Slask Wroclaw tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Slask Wroclaw in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.