Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wisla Plock at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wisla Plock host Radomiak Radom at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 19 October 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Wisla Plock — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Plock's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Radomiak Radom stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Radomiak Radom away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Wisla Plock 1.20 PPG, Radomiak Radom 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Wisla Plock have won 1, Radomiak Radom 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 6 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2026, ended 0–1 with Radomiak Radom winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Wisla Plock in-play tendencies (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Radomiak Radom in-play tendencies (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Plock 46% versus Radomiak Radom 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Plock 40% | Radomiak Radom 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.82 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 0.851 / defence 0.996 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.791 / defence 1.394. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.332. Radomiak Radom bring a strong defensive rating of 1.394 — this is suppressing Wisla Plock's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Wisla Plock games / 44 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 52% | Draw 29% | Radomiak Radom 18%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 1.92 | Draw 3.45 | Radomiak Radom 5.56. Wisla Plock hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wisla Plock at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wisla Plock offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. This conflicts with form data: Wisla Plock 20% | Radomiak Radom 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego • Kick-off: Monday 19 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 52% | Draw 29% | Radomiak Radom 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Wisla Plock 1.82 / Radomiak Radom 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 0.851 / def 0.996 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.791 / def 1.394 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Wisla Plock (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Radomiak Radom xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Monday 19 October 2026 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 52% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 18% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Wisla Plock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Wisla Plock and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Radomiak Radom?
Record (6 meetings): Wisla Plock 1W | Draws 3 | Radomiak Radom 2W.
What form are Wisla Plock and Radomiak Radom in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Wisla Plock's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Radomiak Radom's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Wisla Plock's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Plock Win
52%
1.91
29%
3.41
18%
5.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
2.87
1.05
Radomiak Radom xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
5.45
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
16%
6.20
Win to Nil
18%
5.46
3%
33.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.8 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 1.05 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wisla Plock come into this having played 43 games, going 15W 12D 16L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-L. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Radomiak Radom sit at 1.14 PPG from 43 outings (12W 13D 18L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wisla Plock on 1.33 PPG, Radomiak Radom on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Wisla Plock's home form reads 9W 4D 7L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Radomiak Radom have taken 0.65 points per game from 20 outings (2W 7D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Radomiak Radom's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Plock come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wisla Plock are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.30 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom in 67%.
Last 43 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 15W 12D 16L in their last 43 games (1.33 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 12W 13D 18L in their last 43 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Plock at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Wisla Plock's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Plock at home: 1.55 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Wisla Plock's record when hosting Radomiak Radom specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Wisla Plock
3
Draws
2
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Radomiak Radom?
From 6 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 1, Radomiak Radom have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Wisla Plock 0-1 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Plock and Radomiak Radom?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Plock 25%, Radomiak Radom 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Wisla Plock) and 65% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Wisla Plock have failed to score in 50% of games; Radomiak Radom in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Radomiak Radom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Wisla Plock's recent matches and 65% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Wisla Plock's recent games and 65% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Plock and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.