Wisla Plock 0-1 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wisla Plock at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 22 as Wisla Plock welcome Pogon Szczecin to Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 February 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Wisla Plock — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego, Wisla Plock have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Wisla Plock are significantly better at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pogon Szczecin stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pogon Szczecin away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Wisla Plock at 1.10 PPG versus Pogon Szczecin's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Wisla Plock, 0 for Pogon Szczecin and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Wisla Plock in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Pogon Szczecin in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wisla Plock 56% and Pogon Szczecin 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Plock 57% | Pogon Szczecin 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.49 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 0.981 / defence 0.919 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.183 / defence 1.235. League average goals — home 1.226 / away 1.134. Pogon Szczecin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.235 — this is suppressing Wisla Plock's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Wisla Plock games / 55 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 42% | Draw 27% | Pogon Szczecin 31%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Pogon Szczecin 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Wisla Plock as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wisla Plock offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wisla Plock 50% | Pogon Szczecin 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Feb 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 42% | Draw 27% | Pogon Szczecin 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Wisla Plock 1.49 / Pogon Szczecin 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 0.981 / def 0.919 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.183 / def 1.235 | league avg home 1.226 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Wisla Plock (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Pogon Szczecin xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 26 February 2023 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What was the final score in Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin?
Wisla Plock 0 - 1 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 42% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Wisla Plock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Wisla Plock and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (3 meetings): Wisla Plock 2W | Draws 1 | Pogon Szczecin 0W.
What form are Wisla Plock and Pogon Szczecin in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Wisla Plock's attack at 0.98x the league average against Pogon Szczecin's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pogon Szczecin's attack versus Wisla Plock's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Plock Win
42%
2.36
27%
3.75
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
2.72
1.23
Pogon Szczecin xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
12%
8.09
7%
14.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.1 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 1.23 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 54 outings, Wisla Plock have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 23W 7D 24L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pogon Szczecin's form line: 26W 17D 11L from 54 games, 1.76 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wisla Plock on 1.41 PPG, Pogon Szczecin on 1.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Wisla Plock have posted 2.08 PPG from 26 outings (17W 3D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.41 PPG overall — Wisla Plock are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Pogon Szczecin have gone 11W 10D 5L from 26 away games — 1.65 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Plock come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wisla Plock are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.78 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pogon Szczecin in 69%.
Last 54 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 23W 7D 24L in their last 54 games (1.41 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 26W 17D 11L in their last 54 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Plock at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Wisla Plock's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Plock at home: 2.08 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 May 2026, when Pogon Szczecin won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wisla Plock's record when hosting Pogon Szczecin specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Wisla Plock
1
Draws
2
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Pogon Szczecin?
From 6 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 3, Pogon Szczecin have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Pogon Szczecin 3-0 Wisla Plock.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Plock and Pogon Szczecin?
Wisla Plock have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Pogon Szczecin see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Plock 42%, Pogon Szczecin 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Wisla Plock) and 42% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Pogon Szczecin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Wisla Plock's recent matches and 62% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Wisla Plock's recent games and 42% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Plock and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pogon Szczecin defy the odds to beat Wisla Plock 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Wisla Plock 0-1 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego, Regular Season - 22, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 1.49 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.23 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Wisla Plock fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 0.98 / defence 0.92 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.18 / defence 1.24, drawn from 54/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 42% | Draw 27% | Pogon Szczecin 31%, with Wisla Plock to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Pogon Szczecin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 57%, Pogon Szczecin 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Plock's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wisla Plock 1.41 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.