Wisla Plock 1-0 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wisla Plock at 54%, yet in-form Pogon Szczecin provide a compelling counter-argument — this Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 11 as Wisla Plock welcome Pogon Szczecin to Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego. Kick-off is set for Sunday 17 October 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Wisla Plock — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego, Wisla Plock have gone 3W 1D 0L this season (4 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.25 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 clean sheets from 4 home games (75%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Wisla Plock are significantly better at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pogon Szczecin stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pogon Szczecin away from home this season: 1W 3D 1L from 5 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Pogon Szczecin — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Wisla Plock in-play and half-time data (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Pogon Szczecin in-play and half-time data (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 70% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 30% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Plock 50% versus Pogon Szczecin 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Wisla Plock 60% | Pogon Szczecin 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.47 xG and Pogon Szczecin 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 1.233 / defence 0.840 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.764 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.206 / away 1.202. Data: 10 Wisla Plock games / 10 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 54% | Draw 27% | Pogon Szczecin 20%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Pogon Szczecin 5.00. Wisla Plock hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Wisla Plock as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Pogon Szczecin (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wisla Plock offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wisla Plock 25% | Pogon Szczecin 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 54% | Draw 27% | Pogon Szczecin 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 41% | xG Wisla Plock 1.47 / Pogon Szczecin 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 1.233 / def 0.840 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.764 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.206 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Wisla Plock (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Pogon Szczecin xG
41%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What was the final score in Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin?
Wisla Plock 1 - 0 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 54% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Wisla Plock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Wisla Plock and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Pogon Szczecin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wisla Plock and Pogon Szczecin in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Wisla Plock's attack at 1.23x the league average against Pogon Szczecin's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pogon Szczecin's attack versus Wisla Plock's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Plock Win
54%
1.86
27%
3.76
20%
5.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
2.24
0.77
Pogon Szczecin xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
5.08
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
25%
4.03
5%
22.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 12.1 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 8.9 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 0.77 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 10 outings, Wisla Plock have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 3W 1D 6L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pogon Szczecin's form line: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games, 1.90 PPG, last five D-D-D-W-W. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Pogon Szczecin are the form team by 0.90 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Wisla Plock.
Venue Form
On home soil, Wisla Plock have posted 2.50 PPG from 4 outings (3W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Wisla Plock are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Pogon Szczecin have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.90 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Pogon Szczecin's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Plock come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wisla Plock are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.60 scored and 0.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pogon Szczecin in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 games (1.00 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Plock at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Wisla Plock's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Plock at home: 2.50 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Wisla Plock or Pogon Szczecin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wisla Plock have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Pogon Szczecin in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 May 2026, when Pogon Szczecin won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wisla Plock's record when hosting Pogon Szczecin specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Wisla Plock
1
Draws
2
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Pogon Szczecin?
From 6 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 3, Pogon Szczecin have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Pogon Szczecin 3-0 Wisla Plock.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Plock and Pogon Szczecin?
Wisla Plock have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Plock 25%, Pogon Szczecin 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Wisla Plock and 0% for Pogon Szczecin.
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Pogon Szczecin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Wisla Plock's recent matches and 50% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Wisla Plock's recent games and 0% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Plock and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Wisla Plock edge out Pogon Szczecin 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wisla Plock beat Pogon Szczecin 1-0 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego, Regular Season - 11, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 1.47 xG and Pogon Szczecin 0.77 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 1.23 / defence 0.84 against Pogon Szczecin attack 0.76 / defence 0.99, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 54% | Draw 27% | Pogon Szczecin 20%, with Wisla Plock to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 60%, Pogon Szczecin 20%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Plock's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Wisla Plock winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.