Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 24 as Wisla Plock welcome Pogon Szczecin to Orlen Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 March 2027 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Wisla Plock — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Wisla Plock have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Orlen Stadion, Wisla Plock have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pogon Szczecin stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Pogon Szczecin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pogon Szczecin away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Pogon Szczecin — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Wisla Plock, 2 for Pogon Szczecin and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2026, ended 0–3 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Wisla Plock in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Pogon Szczecin in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Plock 46% versus Pogon Szczecin 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Plock 38% | Pogon Szczecin 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 0.68 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 0.617 / defence 0.998 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.920 / defence 0.713. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.297. Wisla Plock's attack strength of 0.617 is below the league average — the 0.68 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Pogon Szczecin's defence strength of 0.713 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 39 Wisla Plock games / 39 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 18% | Draw 37% | Pogon Szczecin 45%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 5.56 | Draw 2.70 | Pogon Szczecin 2.22. Pogon Szczecin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (37%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.87 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wisla Plock 10% | Pogon Szczecin 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Orlen Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Mar 2027, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 18% | Draw 37% | Pogon Szczecin 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Wisla Plock 0.68 / Pogon Szczecin 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 0.617 / def 0.998 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.920 / def 0.713 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.68
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Pogon Szczecin xG
37%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 6 March 2027 at Orlen Stadion.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Orlen Stadion.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 18% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 45% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Wisla Plock and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (6 meetings): Wisla Plock 3W | Draws 1 | Pogon Szczecin 2W.
What form are Wisla Plock and Pogon Szczecin in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Wisla Plock's attack at 0.62x the league average against Pogon Szczecin's defence at 0.71x — combine the two and it projects 0.68 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pogon Szczecin's attack versus Wisla Plock's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (16.8%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
18%
5.58
37%
2.71
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.68
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
1.87
1.19
Pogon Szczecin xG
5.58
18%
Home win
2.71
37%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.68
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
51%
1.97
Win to Nil
5%
18.37
23%
4.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.4 | 18.4 | 11.0 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.5 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 0.68 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 1.19 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 39 outings, Wisla Plock have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 13W 11D 15L record — W-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Wisla Plock, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pogon Szczecin's form line: 15W 8D 16L from 39 games, 1.36 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wisla Plock on 1.28 PPG, Pogon Szczecin on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Wisla Plock have posted 1.47 PPG from 19 outings (8W 4D 7L).
On the road, Pogon Szczecin have gone 5W 4D 10L from 19 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Plock come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wisla Plock are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.38 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Early Season
Pogon Szczecin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 13W 11D 15L in their last 39 games (1.28 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 15W 8D 16L in their last 39 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Plock at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Wisla Plock's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Plock at home: 1.47 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 May 2026, when Pogon Szczecin won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wisla Plock's record when hosting Pogon Szczecin specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Wisla Plock
1
Draws
2
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Pogon Szczecin?
From 6 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 3, Pogon Szczecin have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Pogon Szczecin 3-0 Wisla Plock.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Plock and Pogon Szczecin?
Wisla Plock have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Wisla Plock 21% BTTS, Pogon Szczecin 47%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 26% for Wisla Plock and 37% for Pogon Szczecin.
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Wisla Plock have failed to score in 53% of games; Pogon Szczecin in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Pogon Szczecin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 21% of Wisla Plock's recent matches and 47% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Wisla Plock's recent games and 37% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Plock and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.