Wisla Plock 0-0 Lech Poznan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wisla Plock at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wisla Plock vs Lech Poznan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Wisla Plock and Lech Poznan meet at Orlen Stadion in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 30 November 2025 at 19:15 UTC.
Current Form
Wisla Plock's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Orlen Stadion, Wisla Plock have gone 6W 1D 1L this season (8 games, 2.38 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Orlen Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.38 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Wisla Plock are significantly better at Orlen Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Lech Poznan have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lech Poznan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Lech Poznan have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Wisla Plock against 1.40 for Lech Poznan. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Wisla Plock lead 1W to 3W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2023, ended 0–1 with Lech Poznan winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Wisla Plock half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Lech Poznan half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wisla Plock 60% and Lech Poznan 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Plock 20% | Lech Poznan 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.42 xG and Lech Poznan 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 0.930 / defence 0.827 | Lech Poznan attack 1.005 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.661 / away 1.244. Data: 15 Wisla Plock games / 49 Lech Poznan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 44% | Draw 31% | Lech Poznan 26%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Lech Poznan 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wisla Plock at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wisla Plock if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Wisla Plock 38% | Lech Poznan 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Lech Poznan | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Orlen Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Nov 2025, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 44% | Draw 31% | Lech Poznan 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Wisla Plock 1.42 / Lech Poznan 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 0.930 / def 0.827 | Lech Poznan attack 1.005 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.661 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Wisla Plock (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Lech Poznan xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Lech Poznan kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Lech Poznan kicked off at 19:15 on Sunday 30 November 2025 at Orlen Stadion.
What was the final score in Wisla Plock vs Lech Poznan?
Wisla Plock 0 - 0 Lech Poznan.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Lech Poznan being played?
The match is being played at Orlen Stadion.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Lech Poznan part of?
Wisla Plock vs Lech Poznan is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Lech Poznan?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 44% chance of winning, Lech Poznan a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Wisla Plock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Lech Poznan?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Wisla Plock and Lech Poznan will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Lech Poznan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Lech Poznan?
Record (4 meetings): Wisla Plock 1W | Draws 0 | Lech Poznan 3W.
What form are Wisla Plock and Lech Poznan in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Lech Poznan (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Wisla Plock's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Lech Poznan's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Lech Poznan's attack (1.00x) against Wisla Plock's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 15/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Plock Win
44%
2.28
31%
3.26
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
2.45
1.03
Lech Poznan xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
16%
6.42
6%
16.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.6 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Lech Poznan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Lech Poznan expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 1.03 for Lech Poznan, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Lech Poznan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 15 outings, Wisla Plock have picked up 1.80 PPG on a 7W 6D 2L record — W-D-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lech Poznan's form line: 6W 6D 3L from 15 games, 1.60 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-W. The sample for Lech Poznan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.80 PPG for Wisla Plock against 1.60 for Lech Poznan. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Wisla Plock have posted 2.17 PPG from 6 outings (4W 1D 1L).
On the road, Lech Poznan have gone 3W 2D 1L from 6 away games — 1.83 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Wisla Plock are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.73 conceded per game recently; Lech Poznan are on 1.80 scored and 1.60 conceded. Lech Poznan's attacking output running into Wisla Plock's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Wisla Plock have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Lech Poznan in 80%.
Last 15 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Blended
Lech Poznan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Lech Poznan in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 7W 6D 2L in their last 15 games (1.80 PPG), while Lech Poznan have gone 6W 6D 3L in their last 15 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Plock at home or Lech Poznan away?
Wisla Plock's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Plock at home: 2.17 PPG; Lech Poznan away: 1.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lech Poznan won 4-1 on 22 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wisla Plock have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lech Poznan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Wisla Plock
2
Draws
3
Lech Poznan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Lech Poznan?
From 6 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 1, Lech Poznan have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Lech Poznan last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Lech Poznan 2-2 Wisla Plock.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Plock and Lech Poznan?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Lech Poznan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Plock 50%, Lech Poznan 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Wisla Plock) and 50% (Lech Poznan).
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Lech Poznan in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Lech Poznan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Lech Poznan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Wisla Plock's recent matches and 50% of Lech Poznan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Plock vs Lech Poznan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Wisla Plock's recent games and 50% of Lech Poznan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Plock and Lech Poznan tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Lech Poznan in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Wisla Plock's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wisla Plock and Lech Poznan finished level at 0-0 at Orlen Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 1.42 xG and Lech Poznan 1.03 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Wisla Plock fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Lech Poznan landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 0.93 / defence 0.83 against Lech Poznan attack 1.00 / defence 0.92, drawn from 15/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 44% | Draw 31% | Lech Poznan 26%, with Wisla Plock to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 20%, Lech Poznan 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Plock's trading profile (15 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Lech Poznan's trading profile (15 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wisla Plock 1.80 PPG, Lech Poznan 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.