Wisla Krakow 0-0 Górnik Łęczna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Górnik Łęczna at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wisla Krakow vs Górnik Łęczna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 22 as Wisla Krakow welcome Górnik Łęczna to Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana. Kick-off is set for Monday 21 February 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Wisla Krakow have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Krakow at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Wisla Krakow are significantly better at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana than their overall form suggests.
Górnik Łęczna — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Górnik Łęczna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Górnik Łęczna have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Górnik Łęczna — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Wisla Krakow, 0 for Górnik Łęczna and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 3–1 with Wisla Krakow winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Wisla Krakow trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Górnik Łęczna trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Krakow 38% versus Górnik Łęczna 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Krakow 52% | Górnik Łęczna 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Krakow 1.09 xG and Górnik Łęczna 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Krakow attack 0.779 / defence 1.153 | Górnik Łęczna attack 0.856 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.135 / away 1.163. Wisla Krakow's attack strength of 0.779 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Górnik Łęczna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.229 — this is suppressing Wisla Krakow's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Wisla Krakow games / 21 Górnik Łęczna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 34% | Draw 29% | Górnik Łęczna 37%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Krakow 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Górnik Łęczna 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Górnik Łęczna as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Górnik Łęczna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Wisla Krakow 20% | Górnik Łęczna 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Krakow vs Górnik Łęczna | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana • Kick-off: Monday 21 Feb 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 34% | Draw 29% | Górnik Łęczna 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Wisla Krakow 1.09 / Górnik Łęczna 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Krakow attack 0.779 / def 1.153 | Górnik Łęczna attack 0.856 / def 1.229 | league avg home 1.135 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Górnik Łęczna (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Wisla Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Górnik Łęczna xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Krakow vs Górnik Łęczna kick off?
Wisla Krakow vs Górnik Łęczna kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 21 February 2022 at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What was the final score in Wisla Krakow vs Górnik Łęczna?
Wisla Krakow 0 - 0 Górnik Łęczna.
Where is Wisla Krakow vs Górnik Łęczna being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What competition is Wisla Krakow vs Górnik Łęczna part of?
Wisla Krakow vs Górnik Łęczna is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Krakow vs Górnik Łęczna?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Krakow a 34% chance of winning, Górnik Łęczna a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Górnik Łęczna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Krakow vs Górnik Łęczna?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Wisla Krakow and Górnik Łęczna will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Krakow vs Górnik Łęczna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Krakow and Górnik Łęczna?
Record (1 meetings): Wisla Krakow 1W | Draws 0 | Górnik Łęczna 0W.
What form are Wisla Krakow and Górnik Łęczna in?
Wisla Krakow (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Górnik Łęczna (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Wisla Krakow's attack at 0.78x the league average against Górnik Łęczna's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Górnik Łęczna's attack versus Wisla Krakow's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Górnik Łęczna Win
34%
2.95
29%
3.44
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Wisla Krakow xG
Total xG
2.23
1.15
Górnik Łęczna xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
11%
9.31
12%
8.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 12.3 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Krakow vs Górnik Łęczna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Wisla Krakow and Górnik Łęczna expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Wisla Krakow and 1.15 for Górnik Łęczna, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Krakow vs Górnik Łęczna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wisla Krakow's recent record stands at 6W 3D 12L from 21 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Wisla Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Górnik Łęczna, meanwhile, have gone 4W 8D 9L across 21 games — 0.95 PPG, with W-W-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Górnik Łęczna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wisla Krakow on 1.00 PPG, Górnik Łęczna on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Wisla Krakow have managed 4W 1D 5L from 10 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Górnik Łęczna's away record stands at 2W 3D 5L across 10 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Krakow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wisla Krakow are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Górnik Łęczna are on 1.00 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Górnik Łęczna in 71%.
Last 21 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Krakow
Blended
Górnik Łęczna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Krakow and Górnik Łęczna in coming into this match?
Wisla Krakow have gone 6W 3D 12L in their last 21 games (1.00 PPG), while Górnik Łęczna have gone 4W 8D 9L in their last 21 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Krakow at home or Górnik Łęczna away?
Wisla Krakow's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Krakow at home: 1.30 PPG; Górnik Łęczna away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Wisla Krakow
1
Draws
0
Górnik Łęczna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Krakow and Górnik Łęczna?
From 2 meetings on record, Wisla Krakow have won 1, Górnik Łęczna have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Krakow and Górnik Łęczna last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2022, when Wisla Krakow 0-0 Górnik Łęczna.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Krakow and Górnik Łęczna?
Wisla Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wisla Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Górnik Łęczna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Krakow 20%, Górnik Łęczna 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Wisla Krakow) and 50% (Górnik Łęczna).
On the defensive side: Wisla Krakow keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Wisla Krakow have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Krakow home games / Górnik Łęczna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Krakow play Górnik Łęczna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Wisla Krakow's recent matches and 70% of Górnik Łęczna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Krakow vs Górnik Łęczna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Wisla Krakow's recent games and 50% of Górnik Łęczna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Krakow and Górnik Łęczna tend to score early?
Wisla Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Górnik Łęczna in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Wisla Krakow's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana, Regular Season - 22, as Wisla Krakow and Górnik Łęczna drew 0-0 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Krakow 1.09 xG and Górnik Łęczna 1.15 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Wisla Krakow fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Górnik Łęczna landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Krakow attack 0.78 / defence 1.15 against Górnik Łęczna attack 0.86 / defence 1.23, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Krakow 34% | Draw 29% | Górnik Łęczna 37%, with Górnik Łęczna to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Krakow 52%, Górnik Łęczna 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Krakow's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Górnik Łęczna's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wisla Krakow 1.00 PPG, Górnik Łęczna 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Wisla Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Górnik Łęczna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.