Wieczysta Kraków vs Piast Gliwice – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Piast Gliwice at 34% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wieczysta Kraków vs Piast Gliwice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Piast Gliwice make the trip to Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana to face Wieczysta Kraków in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 February 2027 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Wieczysta Kraków (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wieczysta Kraków, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wieczysta Kraków's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 2L across 4 games at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Piast Gliwice's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Piast Gliwice away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Piast Gliwice are 0.80 PPG clear of Wieczysta Kraków in recent Ekstraklasa fixtures (1.60 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Wieczysta Kraków have seen both teams score in 75% of their games, Piast Gliwice in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Wieczysta Kraków lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 7.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2026, ended 4–3 with Wieczysta Kraków winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Wieczysta Kraków goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Piast Gliwice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wieczysta Kraków 73% and Piast Gliwice 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Wieczysta Kraków 73% | Piast Gliwice 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wieczysta Kraków 1.28 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wieczysta Kraków attack 0.917 / defence 1.033 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.965 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.332. Data: 11 Wieczysta Kraków games / 44 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wieczysta Kraków 32% | Draw 34% | Piast Gliwice 34%. Fair-value odds: Wieczysta Kraków 3.12 | Draw 2.94 | Piast Gliwice 2.94. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wieczysta Kraków 75% | Piast Gliwice 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wieczysta Kraków vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wieczysta Kraków 32% | Draw 34% | Piast Gliwice 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 57% | xG Wieczysta Kraków 1.28 / Piast Gliwice 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Wieczysta Kraków attack 0.917 / def 1.033 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.965 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Wieczysta Kraków xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Piast Gliwice xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wieczysta Kraków vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Wieczysta Kraków vs Piast Gliwice is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
Where is Wieczysta Kraków vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What competition is Wieczysta Kraków vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Wieczysta Kraków vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wieczysta Kraków vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Wieczysta Kraków a 32% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 34% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Wieczysta Kraków vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Wieczysta Kraków and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Wieczysta Kraków vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wieczysta Kraków and Piast Gliwice?
Record (1 meetings): Wieczysta Kraków 1W | Draws 0 | Piast Gliwice 0W.
What form are Wieczysta Kraków and Piast Gliwice in?
Wieczysta Kraków (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Wieczysta Kraków's attack at 0.92x the league average against Piast Gliwice's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Piast Gliwice's attack (0.96x) against Wieczysta Kraków's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 11/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
32%
3.13
34%
2.95
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Wieczysta Kraków xG
Total xG
2.61
1.33
Piast Gliwice xG
3.13
32%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
8%
11.82
10%
10.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.8 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.5 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wieczysta Kraków vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Wieczysta Kraków and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Wieczysta Kraków and 1.33 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Wieczysta Kraków vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Wieczysta Kraków come into this having played 11 games, going 2W 2D 7L for 0.73 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L. The sample for Wieczysta Kraków is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Piast Gliwice sit at 1.45 PPG from 11 outings (5W 1D 5L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Piast Gliwice carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Wieczysta Kraków — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Wieczysta Kraków's home form reads 1W 1D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Piast Gliwice have taken 1.50 points per game from 4 outings (2W 0D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Piast Gliwice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Wieczysta Kraków are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.73 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wieczysta Kraków have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 11 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wieczysta Kraków
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wieczysta Kraków and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Wieczysta Kraków have gone 2W 2D 7L in their last 11 games (0.73 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 5W 1D 5L in their last 11 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wieczysta Kraków at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Piast Gliwice's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wieczysta Kraków at home: 1.00 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Wieczysta Kraków
0
Draws
0
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wieczysta Kraków and Piast Gliwice?
From 1 meetings on record, Wieczysta Kraków have won 1, Piast Gliwice have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wieczysta Kraków and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Piast Gliwice 3-4 Wieczysta Kraków.
Who has won more matches between Wieczysta Kraków and Piast Gliwice?
Wieczysta Kraków have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wieczysta Kraków see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Piast Gliwice tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wieczysta Kraków 75%, Piast Gliwice 0% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Wieczysta Kraków) and 25% (Piast Gliwice).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice in 50%; Piast Gliwice in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wieczysta Kraków home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wieczysta Kraków play Piast Gliwice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Wieczysta Kraków's recent matches and 0% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wieczysta Kraków vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Wieczysta Kraków's recent games and 25% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wieczysta Kraków and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Wieczysta Kraków have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.