Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Krakow – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
plays host to Widzew Łódź versus Wisla Krakow in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Saturday 17 October 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Widzew Łódź's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Widzew Łódź have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at , Widzew Łódź have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Widzew Łódź are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Wisla Krakow have collected 1.67 PPG across 6 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 1D 2L. Last five: L W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Wisla Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Wisla Krakow away from home this season: 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.67 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Widzew Łódź, 1.67 for Wisla Krakow — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Widzew Łódź have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Wisla Krakow in 100%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Widzew Łódź — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Wisla Krakow — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Widzew Łódź 67% and Wisla Krakow 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Widzew Łódź 67% | Wisla Krakow 83%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 2.15 xG and Wisla Krakow 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 1.051 / defence 1.184 | Wisla Krakow attack 1.045 / defence 1.324. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.303. Wisla Krakow bring a strong defensive rating of 1.324 — this is suppressing Widzew Łódź's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Widzew Łódź games / 6 Wisla Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 48% | Draw 25% | Wisla Krakow 27%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Wisla Krakow 3.70. Widzew Łódź hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.76. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.76 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.15 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Widzew Łódź are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Widzew Łódź 60% | Wisla Krakow 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 48% | Draw 25% | Wisla Krakow 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 73% | xG Widzew Łódź 2.15 / Wisla Krakow 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 1.051 / def 1.184 | Wisla Krakow attack 1.045 / def 1.324 | league avg home 1.542 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Wisla Krakow xG
73%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Krakow kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Krakow is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 17 October 2026.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Krakow part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Krakow is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 48% chance of winning, Wisla Krakow a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Krakow?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Wisla Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Wisla Krakow?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Wisla Krakow in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Wisla Krakow (all comps): 3W-1D-2L in 6 | 1.67 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Widzew Łódź's attack at 1.05x the league average against Wisla Krakow's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 2.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Wisla Krakow's attack (1.04x) against Widzew Łódź's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 40/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
48%
2.08
25%
4.04
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
3.76
1.61
Wisla Krakow xG
2.08
48%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.38
27%
BTTS No
3.67
Clean Sheet
20%
5.02
12%
8.55
Win to Nil
10%
10.43
3%
31.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 8.1 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Wisla Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.61 for Wisla Krakow, a combined total of 3.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 6 outings, Widzew Łódź have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 1W 3D 2L record — D-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Wisla Krakow's form line: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games, 1.67 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Wisla Krakow are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Widzew Łódź.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Widzew Łódź have posted 0.33 PPG from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L). That actually lags their 1.00 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Wisla Krakow have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wisla Krakow's season.
Attack vs Defence
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Wisla Krakow are on 2.00 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Widzew Łódź have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Wisla Krakow in 83%.
Last 6 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Early Season
Wisla Krakow
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Wisla Krakow in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 1W 3D 2L in their last 6 games (1.00 PPG), while Wisla Krakow have gone 3W 1D 2L in their last 6 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Wisla Krakow away?
Widzew Łódź's home record (0.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 0.33 PPG; Wisla Krakow away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Widzew Łódź or Wisla Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Wisla Krakow in 17%.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Wisla Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Widzew Łódź, 100% for Wisla Krakow — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Widzew Łódź and 100% for Wisla Krakow. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Wisla Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Wisla Krakow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Widzew Łódź's games and 100% of Wisla Krakow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Widzew Łódź's matches and 100% of Wisla Krakow's.
Do Widzew Łódź and Wisla Krakow tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Wisla Krakow in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.