Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

plays host to Widzew Łódź versus Radomiak Radom in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Saturday 5 September 2026 at 12:45 UTC.

Current Form

Widzew Łódź's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Widzew Łódź have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Widzew Łódź's home record at : 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Widzew Łódź are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.

Radomiak Radom (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Widzew Łódź 3W, Radomiak Radom 4W, 1D.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with Radomiak Radom winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Widzew Łódź half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).

Radomiak Radom half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Widzew Łódź 52% and Radomiak Radom 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 50% | Radomiak Radom 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 2.20 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 1.051 / defence 1.185 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.828 / defence 1.357. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.303. Radomiak Radom bring a strong defensive rating of 1.357 — this is suppressing Widzew Łódź's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Widzew Łódź games / 40 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 56% | Draw 24% | Radomiak Radom 19%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Radomiak Radom 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Widzew Łódź (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.20 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Widzew Łódź as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.48 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Widzew Łódź 60% | Radomiak Radom 50% BTTS from recent games.

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