Widzew Łódź 2-0 Puszcza Niepołomice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Widzew Łódź at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Widzew Łódź vs Puszcza Niepołomice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Widzew Łódź and Puszcza Niepołomice meet at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Monday 19 May 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Widzew Łódź's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Widzew Łódź's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Puszcza Niepołomice have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L D L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.90. Conceding 2.90 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Puszcza Niepołomice have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Widzew Łódź's favour (1.10 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Widzew Łódź, 2 for Puszcza Niepołomice and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2024, ended 0–2 with Puszcza Niepołomice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Widzew Łódź half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Puszcza Niepołomice half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 58% versus Puszcza Niepołomice 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 48% | Puszcza Niepołomice 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.57 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.691 / defence 1.060 | Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.847 / defence 1.450. League average goals — home 1.565 / away 1.253. Widzew Łódź's attack strength of 0.691 is below the league average — the 1.57 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Puszcza Niepołomice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.450 — this is suppressing Widzew Łódź's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 Widzew Łódź games / 66 Puszcza Niepołomice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 47% | Draw 25% | Puszcza Niepołomice 27%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Puszcza Niepołomice 3.70. Widzew Łódź hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Widzew Łódź are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Widzew Łódź 40% | Puszcza Niepołomice 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Puszcza Niepołomice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź • Kick-off: Monday 19 May 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 47% | Draw 25% | Puszcza Niepołomice 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.57 / Puszcza Niepołomice 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.691 / def 1.060 | Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.847 / def 1.450 | league avg home 1.565 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Puszcza Niepołomice kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Puszcza Niepołomice kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 19 May 2025 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Widzew Łódź 2 - 0 Puszcza Niepołomice.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Puszcza Niepołomice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Puszcza Niepołomice part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Puszcza Niepołomice is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 47% chance of winning, Puszcza Niepołomice a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Puszcza Niepołomice will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Puszcza Niepołomice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Puszcza Niepołomice?
Record (3 meetings): Widzew Łódź 1W | Draws 0 | Puszcza Niepołomice 2W.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Puszcza Niepołomice in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Puszcza Niepołomice (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Widzew Łódź's attack rating (0.69) and Puszcza Niepołomice's defence rating (1.45), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Puszcza Niepołomice's attack (0.85x) against Widzew Łódź's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
47%
2.11
25%
3.94
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.69
1.12
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
15%
6.49
6%
17.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.9 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Puszcza Niepołomice expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.12 for Puszcza Niepołomice, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Widzew Łódź's recent record stands at 23W 14D 29L from 66 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five.
Puszcza Niepołomice, meanwhile, have gone 15W 22D 29L across 66 games — 1.02 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Widzew Łódź against 1.02 for Puszcza Niepołomice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Widzew Łódź have managed 16W 3D 14L from 33 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Puszcza Niepołomice's away record stands at 4W 8D 21L across 33 trips, a 0.61 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.02 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Puszcza Niepołomice's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Widzew Łódź come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Puszcza Niepołomice are on 1.14 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Current Season
Puszcza Niepołomice
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Puszcza Niepołomice in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 23W 14D 29L in their last 66 games (1.26 PPG), while Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 15W 22D 29L in their last 66 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Puszcza Niepołomice away?
Widzew Łódź's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.55 PPG; Puszcza Niepołomice away: 0.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Widzew Łódź have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Puszcza Niepołomice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Widzew Łódź
0
Draws
2
Puszcza Niepołomice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Puszcza Niepołomice?
From 4 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 2, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Puszcza Niepołomice last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2025, when Widzew Łódź 2-0 Puszcza Niepołomice.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Puszcza Niepołomice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 42%, Puszcza Niepołomice 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Widzew Łódź) and 33% (Puszcza Niepołomice).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Widzew Łódź have failed to score in 30% of games; Puszcza Niepołomice in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Puszcza Niepołomice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Puszcza Niepołomice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 48% of Puszcza Niepołomice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Puszcza Niepołomice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 33% of Puszcza Niepołomice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Puszcza Niepołomice tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Puszcza Niepołomice in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Widzew Łódź cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Puszcza Niepołomice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Widzew Łódź beat Puszcza Niepołomice 2-0 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 33, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.57 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 1.12 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Puszcza Niepołomice landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.69 / defence 1.06 against Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.85 / defence 1.45, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 47% | Draw 25% | Puszcza Niepołomice 27%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 48%, Puszcza Niepołomice 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Widzew Łódź 1.26 PPG, Puszcza Niepołomice 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Widzew Łódź win broke the near-deadlock. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.