Widzew Łódź 1-3 Korona Kielce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Widzew Łódź and Korona Kielce meet at Stadion Widzewa Lodz in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 23 November 2025 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Widzew Łódź (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Widzew Łódź have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stadion Widzewa Lodz — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Widzew Łódź are significantly better at Stadion Widzewa Lodz than their overall form suggests.
Korona Kielce's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Korona Kielce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Korona Kielce have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Korona Kielce are 0.50 PPG clear of Widzew Łódź in recent Ekstraklasa fixtures (1.50 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Widzew Łódź lead 2W to 3W over the last 6 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2025, ended 1–2 with Korona Kielce winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Widzew Łódź goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Korona Kielce goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 53% versus Korona Kielce 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 49% | Korona Kielce 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.16 xG and Korona Kielce 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.885 / defence 0.934 | Korona Kielce attack 0.736 / defence 0.805. League average goals — home 1.623 / away 1.233. Data: 49 Widzew Łódź games / 49 Korona Kielce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 40% | Draw 35% | Korona Kielce 24%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.50 | Draw 2.86 | Korona Kielce 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Widzew Łódź as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Korona Kielce (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Widzew Łódź 40% | Korona Kielce 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion Widzewa Lodz • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Nov 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 40% | Draw 35% | Korona Kielce 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 42% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.16 / Korona Kielce 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.885 / def 0.934 | Korona Kielce attack 0.736 / def 0.805 | league avg home 1.623 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Korona Kielce xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 23 November 2025 at Stadion Widzewa Lodz.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce?
Widzew Łódź 1 - 3 Korona Kielce.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Widzewa Lodz.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 40% chance of winning, Korona Kielce a 24% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Korona Kielce will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Korona Kielce?
Record (6 meetings): Widzew Łódź 2W | Draws 1 | Korona Kielce 3W.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Korona Kielce in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Korona Kielce (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Widzew Łódź's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Korona Kielce's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. Flip it around — Korona Kielce's attack (0.74x) against Widzew Łódź's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
40%
2.47
35%
2.85
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.00
0.85
Korona Kielce xG
2.47
40%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
17%
5.76
8%
13.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 11.4 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 13.2 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Korona Kielce expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 0.85 for Korona Kielce, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Widzew Łódź come into this having played 49 games, going 16W 9D 24L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-L. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Korona Kielce sit at 1.33 PPG from 49 outings (16W 17D 16L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Korona Kielce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Widzew Łódź against 1.33 for Korona Kielce. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Widzew Łódź's home form reads 12W 4D 9L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.16 PPG overall — Widzew Łódź are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Korona Kielce have taken 1.00 points per game from 25 outings (4W 13D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Widzew Łódź come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Korona Kielce are on 1.10 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Korona Kielce
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Korona Kielce in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 16W 9D 24L in their last 49 games (1.16 PPG), while Korona Kielce have gone 16W 17D 16L in their last 49 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Korona Kielce away?
Widzew Łódź's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.60 PPG; Korona Kielce away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Korona Kielce have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Korona Kielce won 0-3 on 27 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Widzew Łódź have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Korona Kielce — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Widzew Łódź
1
Draws
6
Korona Kielce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Korona Kielce?
From 9 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 2, Korona Kielce have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Korona Kielce last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Widzew Łódź 1-2 Korona Kielce.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Korona Kielce?
Korona Kielce have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 40%, Korona Kielce 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 36% for Widzew Łódź and 28% for Korona Kielce.
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Widzew Łódź have failed to score in 28% of games; Korona Kielce in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Korona Kielce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Korona Kielce?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 60% of Korona Kielce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 28% of Korona Kielce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Korona Kielce tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Korona Kielce in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Korona Kielce cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Widzew Łódź.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Korona Kielce beat Widzew Łódź 1-3 at Stadion Widzewa Lodz, Regular Season - 16, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.16 xG and Korona Kielce 0.85 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Korona Kielce outscored their 0.85 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.89 / defence 0.93 against Korona Kielce attack 0.74 / defence 0.81, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 40% | Draw 35% | Korona Kielce 24%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a Korona Kielce win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 49%, Korona Kielce 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Korona Kielce's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Widzew Łódź 1.16 PPG, Korona Kielce 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Korona Kielce win broke the near-deadlock. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.