Widzew Łódź 2-0 Arka Gdynia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Widzew Łódź vs Arka Gdynia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź plays host to Widzew Łódź versus Arka Gdynia in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Sunday 14 September 2025 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Widzew Łódź's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Widzew Łódź have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Widzew Łódź have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Widzew Łódź are significantly better at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź than their overall form suggests.
Arka Gdynia (all games): 2W 2D 3L across 7 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.14 points per game. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.71 per game is modest, conceding 1.14 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Arka Gdynia have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Arka Gdynia away from home this season: 0W 1D 3L from 4 away games — 0.25 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.25 is notably below their overall 1.14 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.14 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Widzew Łódź have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Arka Gdynia in only 25%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Trading & In-Play
Widzew Łódź — key trading statistics (7 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Arka Gdynia — key trading statistics (7 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 57% versus Arka Gdynia 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 57% | Arka Gdynia 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.46 xG and Arka Gdynia 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.878 / defence 0.940 | Arka Gdynia attack 0.589 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.604 / away 1.184. Data: 41 Widzew Łódź games / 7 Arka Gdynia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 56% | Draw 27% | Arka Gdynia 16%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 1.79 | Draw 3.70 | Arka Gdynia 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Widzew Łódź (56%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Widzew Łódź at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Widzew Łódź 30% | Arka Gdynia 25% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Arka Gdynia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Sep 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 56% | Draw 27% | Arka Gdynia 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 37% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.46 / Arka Gdynia 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.878 / def 0.940 | Arka Gdynia attack 0.589 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.604 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Arka Gdynia xG
37%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Arka Gdynia kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Arka Gdynia kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 14 September 2025 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Arka Gdynia?
Widzew Łódź 2 - 0 Arka Gdynia.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Arka Gdynia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Arka Gdynia part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Arka Gdynia is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Arka Gdynia?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 56% chance of winning, Arka Gdynia a 16% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Arka Gdynia?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Arka Gdynia will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Arka Gdynia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Arka Gdynia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Arka Gdynia in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Arka Gdynia (all comps): 2W-2D-3L in 7 | 1.14 PPG | GF 0.71 / GA 1.14 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Widzew Łódź's attack at 0.88x the league average against Arka Gdynia's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Arka Gdynia's attack (0.59x) against Widzew Łódź's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.66.
These ratings are built from 41/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
56%
1.77
27%
3.69
16%
6.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.12
0.66
Arka Gdynia xG
1.77
56%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
6.09
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
52%
1.93
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
29%
3.41
4%
26.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 7.9 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.6 | 11.5 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Arka Gdynia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Arka Gdynia expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 0.66 for Arka Gdynia, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Arka Gdynia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 7 outings, Widzew Łódź have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 2W 1D 4L record — W-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Arka Gdynia's form line: 2W 2D 3L from 7 games, 1.14 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Arka Gdynia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Widzew Łódź against 1.14 for Arka Gdynia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Widzew Łódź have posted 1.75 PPG from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Widzew Łódź are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Arka Gdynia have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 away games — 0.25 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Arka Gdynia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Widzew Łódź come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Arka Gdynia are on 0.71 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 7 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Early Season
Arka Gdynia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Arka Gdynia in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 games (1.00 PPG), while Arka Gdynia have gone 2W 2D 3L in their last 7 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Arka Gdynia away?
Widzew Łódź's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.75 PPG; Arka Gdynia away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Widzew Łódź
1
Draws
0
Arka Gdynia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Arka Gdynia?
From 2 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 1, Arka Gdynia have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Arka Gdynia last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Arka Gdynia 0-0 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Arka Gdynia?
Widzew Łódź have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Arka Gdynia tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 50%, Arka Gdynia 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Widzew Łódź) and 25% (Arka Gdynia).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Arka Gdynia in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Arka Gdynia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Arka Gdynia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 25% of Arka Gdynia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Arka Gdynia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 25% of Arka Gdynia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Arka Gdynia tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Arka Gdynia in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Widzew Łódź cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Arka Gdynia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Widzew Łódź beat Arka Gdynia 2-0 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 8, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.46 xG and Arka Gdynia 0.66 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.88 / defence 0.94 against Arka Gdynia attack 0.59 / defence 1.04, drawn from 41/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 56% | Draw 27% | Arka Gdynia 16%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 57%, Arka Gdynia 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (7 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Arka Gdynia's trading profile (7 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Widzew Łódź 1.00 PPG, Arka Gdynia 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Widzew Łódź win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.