Warta Poznań 0-4 Wisla Plock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Warta Poznań at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Warta Poznań vs Wisla Plock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 2 as Warta Poznań welcome Wisla Plock to Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii. Kick-off is set for Friday 22 July 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Warta Poznań have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Warta Poznań have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Warta Poznań's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wisla Plock stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Wisla Plock have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Wisla Plock have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Warta Poznań 1.50 PPG, Wisla Plock 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Warta Poznań register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Wisla Plock in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Warta Poznań, 1 for Wisla Plock and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2022, ended 3–0 with Warta Poznań winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Warta Poznań in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Wisla Plock in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Warta Poznań 37% versus Wisla Plock 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Warta Poznań 31% | Wisla Plock 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Warta Poznań 1.50 xG and Wisla Plock 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Warta Poznań attack 0.992 / defence 1.079 | Wisla Plock attack 1.017 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 1.316 / away 1.141. Data: 35 Warta Poznań games / 35 Wisla Plock games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Warta Poznań 41% | Draw 29% | Wisla Plock 30%. Fair-value odds: Warta Poznań 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Wisla Plock 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Warta Poznań at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Warta Poznań offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Warta Poznań 80% | Wisla Plock 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Warta Poznań vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii • Kick-off: Friday 22 Jul 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Warta Poznań 41% | Draw 29% | Wisla Plock 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Warta Poznań 1.50 / Wisla Plock 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Warta Poznań attack 0.992 / def 1.079 | Wisla Plock attack 1.017 / def 1.146 | league avg home 1.316 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Warta Poznań (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Warta Poznań xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Wisla Plock xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Warta Poznań vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Warta Poznań vs Wisla Plock kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 22 July 2022 at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii.
What was the final score in Warta Poznań vs Wisla Plock?
Warta Poznań 0 - 4 Wisla Plock.
Where is Warta Poznań vs Wisla Plock being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii.
What competition is Warta Poznań vs Wisla Plock part of?
Warta Poznań vs Wisla Plock is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Warta Poznań vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Warta Poznań a 41% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Warta Poznań the favourite.
Will both teams score in Warta Poznań vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Warta Poznań and Wisla Plock will score (BTTS).
Will Warta Poznań vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Wisla Plock?
Record (2 meetings): Warta Poznań 1W | Draws 0 | Wisla Plock 1W.
What form are Warta Poznań and Wisla Plock in?
Warta Poznań (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Wisla Plock (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Warta Poznań's attack at 0.99x the league average against Wisla Plock's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wisla Plock's attack versus Warta Poznań's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Warta Poznań Win
41%
2.43
29%
3.47
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Warta Poznań xG
Total xG
2.75
1.25
Wisla Plock xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
12%
8.49
7%
14.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.0 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Warta Poznań vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Warta Poznań and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Warta Poznań and 1.25 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Warta Poznań vs Wisla Plock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Warta Poznań's recent record stands at 11W 9D 15L from 35 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Warta Poznań, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Wisla Plock, meanwhile, have gone 16W 3D 16L across 35 games — 1.46 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Wisla Plock, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Warta Poznań on 1.20 PPG, Wisla Plock on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Warta Poznań have managed 4W 6D 7L from 17 games — 1.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wisla Plock's away record stands at 4W 1D 12L across 17 trips, a 0.76 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.46 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wisla Plock's season.
The Goals Picture
Warta Poznań are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 1.46 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Warta Poznań
Early Season
Wisla Plock
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Warta Poznań and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
Warta Poznań have gone 11W 9D 15L in their last 35 games (1.20 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 16W 3D 16L in their last 35 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Warta Poznań at home or Wisla Plock away?
Warta Poznań's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Warta Poznań at home: 1.06 PPG; Wisla Plock away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Warta Poznań and Wisla Plock runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Wisla Plock have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Jul 2022, when Wisla Plock won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Warta Poznań's record when hosting Wisla Plock specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Warta Poznań
0
Draws
3
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Wisla Plock?
From 4 meetings on record, Warta Poznań have won 1, Wisla Plock have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Warta Poznań and Wisla Plock last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2023, when Wisla Plock 1-0 Warta Poznań.
Who has won more matches between Warta Poznań and Wisla Plock?
Wisla Plock have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Warta Poznań see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Warta Poznań 59%, Wisla Plock 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Warta Poznań) and 65% (Wisla Plock).
On the defensive side: Warta Poznań have failed to score in 35% of games; Wisla Plock in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Warta Poznań home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Warta Poznań play Wisla Plock?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Warta Poznań's games and 65% of Wisla Plock's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Warta Poznań vs Wisla Plock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Warta Poznań's recent games and 65% of Wisla Plock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Warta Poznań and Wisla Plock tend to score early?
Warta Poznań have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Wisla Plock in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Wisla Plock run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Warta Poznań.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wisla Plock beat Warta Poznań 0-4 at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii, Regular Season - 2, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Warta Poznań 1.50 xG and Wisla Plock 1.25 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Warta Poznań fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Wisla Plock outscored their 1.25 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Warta Poznań attack 0.99 / defence 1.08 against Wisla Plock attack 1.02 / defence 1.15, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Warta Poznań 41% | Draw 29% | Wisla Plock 30%, with Warta Poznań to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Wisla Plock win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Warta Poznań 31%, Wisla Plock 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Warta Poznań's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Wisla Plock's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Warta Poznań 1.20 PPG, Wisla Plock 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wisla Plock win broke the near-deadlock. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.