Warta Poznań 5-2 Stal Mielec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Warta Poznań take on Stal Mielec.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Warta Poznań host Stal Mielec at Stadion Respect Energy in Ekstraklasa (matchday 29). Kick-off is Monday 22 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Warta Poznań stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Warta Poznań have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Stal Mielec — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Stal Mielec away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Warta Poznań at 1.20 PPG versus Stal Mielec's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Warta Poznań, 1 for Stal Mielec and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 23 Oct 2023, ended Warta Poznań 1–0 Stal Mielec — a Warta Poznań win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Warta Poznań in-play tendencies (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Stal Mielec in-play tendencies (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Warta Poznań 39% versus Stal Mielec 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Warta Poznań 31% | Stal Mielec 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Warta Poznań 0.91 xG and Stal Mielec 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Warta Poznań attack 0.684 / defence 0.890 | Stal Mielec attack 0.807 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.106. Warta Poznań's attack rating of 0.684 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.91. Data: built from Warta Poznań's last 62 games and Stal Mielec's last 62.
Result probabilities: Warta Poznań 34% | Draw 38% | Stal Mielec 28%. Fair-value odds: Warta Poznań 2.92 | Draw 2.62 | Stal Mielec 3.63. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS Yes probability 35% | Total xG 1.71. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.71 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Stal Mielec's lower xG of 0.79 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.71 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 76% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Warta Poznań's last 10 home games and Stal Mielec's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 65%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Warta Poznań 40% (last 10 home games) | Stal Mielec 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Warta Poznań vs Stal Mielec | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 29 | Venue: Stadion Respect Energy • Kick-off: Monday 22 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Warta Poznań 34% | Draw 38% | Stal Mielec 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% (Under 76%) | BTTS Yes 35% (No 65%) | xG Warta Poznań 0.91 / Stal Mielec 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Warta Poznań attack 0.684 / def 0.890 | Stal Mielec attack 0.807 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.409 / away 1.106 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Warta Poznań xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Stal Mielec xG
35%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Warta Poznań vs Stal Mielec FAQs
What time does Warta Poznań vs Stal Mielec kick off?
Warta Poznań vs Stal Mielec kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 22 April 2024 at Stadion Respect Energy.
What was the final score in Warta Poznań vs Stal Mielec?
Warta Poznań 5 - 2 Stal Mielec.
Where is Warta Poznań vs Stal Mielec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Respect Energy.
What competition is Warta Poznań vs Stal Mielec part of?
Warta Poznań vs Stal Mielec is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 29) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Warta Poznań vs Stal Mielec?
Our statistical model gives Warta Poznań a 34% chance of winning, Stal Mielec a 28% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Warta Poznań vs Stal Mielec?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Warta Poznań and Stal Mielec will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (65%).
Will Warta Poznań vs Stal Mielec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (76%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Warta Poznań's attack at 0.68x the league average against Stal Mielec's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stal Mielec's attack versus Warta Poznań's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Warta Poznań's last 62 games and Stal Mielec's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.92
38%
2.62
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Warta Poznań xG
Total xG
1.71
0.79
Stal Mielec xG
2.92
34%
Home win
2.62
38%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.86
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
15%
6.46
11%
9.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.1 | 14.4 | 5.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 13.2 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Warta Poznań vs Stal Mielec Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Warta Poznań vs Stal Mielec?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.8%.
How many goals are Warta Poznań and Stal Mielec expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Warta Poznań and 0.79 for Stal Mielec, a combined total of 1.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Warta Poznań vs Stal Mielec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 62 outings, Warta Poznań have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 19W 19D 24L record — L-L-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Stal Mielec's form line: 21W 18D 23L from 62 games, 1.31 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Warta Poznań on 1.23 PPG, Stal Mielec on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Warta Poznań have posted 1.16 PPG from their last 31 home games (8W 12D 11L).
On the road, Stal Mielec have gone 8W 6D 17L from their last 31 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Warta Poznań are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Stal Mielec are on 1.11 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Warta Poznań
Current Season
Stal Mielec
Current Season
Warta Poznań (Home) vs Stal Mielec (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Warta Poznań
Current Season
Stal Mielec
Current Season
❓ Warta Poznań vs Stal Mielec Form FAQs
What form are Warta Poznań and Stal Mielec in coming into this match?
Warta Poznań have gone 19W 19D 24L in their last 62 games (1.23 PPG), while Stal Mielec have gone 21W 18D 23L in their last 62 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Warta Poznań at home or Stal Mielec away?
Warta Poznań's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Warta Poznań at home: 1.16 PPG; Stal Mielec away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Warta Poznań or Stal Mielec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Warta Poznań have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Stal Mielec in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent in our data was on 22 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Warta Poznań have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Apr 2024, when Warta Poznań won Warta Poznań 5-2 Stal Mielec.
Warta Poznań's record when hosting Stal Mielec specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Warta Poznań
2
Draws
1
Stal Mielec
Recent Meetings
❓ Warta Poznań vs Stal Mielec H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Stal Mielec?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Warta Poznań have won 3, Stal Mielec have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Warta Poznań and Stal Mielec last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 April 2024: Warta Poznań 5-2 Stal Mielec.
Who has won more matches between Warta Poznań and Stal Mielec?
Warta Poznań have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Warta Poznań are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Warta Poznań 45%, Stal Mielec 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Warta Poznań) and 42% (Stal Mielec).
On the defensive side: Warta Poznań have failed to score in 39% of games; Stal Mielec in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Warta Poznań home games / Stal Mielec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Warta Poznań vs Stal Mielec Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Warta Poznań and Stal Mielec matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Warta Poznań's recent matches and 39% of Stal Mielec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Warta Poznań and Stal Mielec matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Warta Poznań's recent games and 42% of Stal Mielec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Warta Poznań and Stal Mielec matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Warta Poznań's recent matches and 71% of Stal Mielec's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Warta Poznań run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Stal Mielec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Warta Poznań beat Stal Mielec 5-2 at Stadion Respect Energy, Regular Season - 29, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Warta Poznań 0.91 xG and Stal Mielec 0.79 xG, a combined 1.71. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Warta Poznań beat their projection by 4.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stal Mielec outscored their 0.79 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Warta Poznań attack 0.68 / defence 0.89 against Stal Mielec attack 0.81 / defence 0.95, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Warta Poznań 34% | Draw 38% | Stal Mielec 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Warta Poznań win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. Over 3.5 was 9% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Warta Poznań 31%, Stal Mielec 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Warta Poznań's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Stal Mielec's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Warta Poznań 1.23 PPG, Stal Mielec 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Warta Poznań win broke the near-deadlock. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.