Warta Poznań 1-1 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jagiellonia at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Warta Poznań vs Jagiellonia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii plays host to Warta Poznań versus Jagiellonia in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Friday 27 August 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Warta Poznań (all games): 1W 2D 2L across 5 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Warta Poznań have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jagiellonia's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Jagiellonia have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Warta Poznań against 1.40 for Jagiellonia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Warta Poznań goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Jagiellonia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Warta Poznań 40% versus Jagiellonia 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Warta Poznań 40% | Jagiellonia 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Warta Poznań 1.07 xG and Jagiellonia 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Warta Poznań attack 0.734 / defence 1.276 | Jagiellonia attack 0.831 / defence 1.249. League average goals — home 1.170 / away 1.057. Warta Poznań's attack strength of 0.734 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Jagiellonia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.249 — this is suppressing Warta Poznań's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Warta Poznań games / 5 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Warta Poznań 33% | Draw 31% | Jagiellonia 35%. Fair-value odds: Warta Poznań 3.03 | Draw 3.23 | Jagiellonia 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jagiellonia as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Warta Poznań 40% | Jagiellonia 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Warta Poznań vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii • Kick-off: Friday 27 Aug 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Warta Poznań 33% | Draw 31% | Jagiellonia 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Warta Poznań 1.07 / Jagiellonia 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Warta Poznań attack 0.734 / def 1.276 | Jagiellonia attack 0.831 / def 1.249 | league avg home 1.170 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Warta Poznań xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Jagiellonia xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Warta Poznań vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Warta Poznań vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 27 August 2021 at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii.
What was the final score in Warta Poznań vs Jagiellonia?
Warta Poznań 1 - 1 Jagiellonia.
Where is Warta Poznań vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii.
What competition is Warta Poznań vs Jagiellonia part of?
Warta Poznań vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Warta Poznań vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Warta Poznań a 33% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 35% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Warta Poznań vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Warta Poznań and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Warta Poznań vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Jagiellonia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Warta Poznań and Jagiellonia in?
Warta Poznań (all comps): 1W-2D-2L in 5 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Jagiellonia (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Warta Poznań's attack at 0.73x the league average against Jagiellonia's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jagiellonia's attack (0.83x) against Warta Poznań's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
33%
3.03
31%
3.18
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Warta Poznań xG
Total xG
2.19
1.12
Jagiellonia xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
11%
9.27
12%
8.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 12.5 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Warta Poznań vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Warta Poznań and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Warta Poznań and 1.12 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Warta Poznań vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Warta Poznań come into this having played 5 games, going 1W 2D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Warta Poznań, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Jagiellonia sit at 1.40 PPG from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Jagiellonia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Warta Poznań against 1.40 for Jagiellonia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Warta Poznań are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia in 60%.
Defensively: Jagiellonia in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Warta Poznań
Early Season
Jagiellonia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Warta Poznań and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Warta Poznań have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 games (1.00 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 (1.40 PPG).
Have Warta Poznań or Jagiellonia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Warta Poznań have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Jagiellonia in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Jagiellonia go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jagiellonia won 3-0 on 25 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Warta Poznań have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Jagiellonia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Warta Poznań
2
Draws
3
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Jagiellonia?
From 6 meetings on record, Warta Poznań have won 1, Jagiellonia have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Warta Poznań and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2024, when Jagiellonia 3-0 Warta Poznań.
Who has won more matches between Warta Poznań and Jagiellonia?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Warta Poznań are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Warta Poznań 40%, Jagiellonia 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Warta Poznań) and 60% (Jagiellonia).
On the defensive side: Jagiellonia in 40%; Warta Poznań have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Warta Poznań home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Warta Poznań play Jagiellonia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Warta Poznań's recent matches and 60% of Jagiellonia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Warta Poznań vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Warta Poznań's recent games and 60% of Jagiellonia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Warta Poznań and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Warta Poznań have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Warta Poznań and Jagiellonia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Warta Poznań and Jagiellonia finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii, Regular Season - 6, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Warta Poznań 1.07 xG and Jagiellonia 1.12 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Warta Poznań attack 0.73 / defence 1.28 against Jagiellonia attack 0.83 / defence 1.25, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Warta Poznań 33% | Draw 31% | Jagiellonia 35%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Warta Poznań 40%, Jagiellonia 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Warta Poznań's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Warta Poznań 1.00 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.