Stal Mielec 2-1 Wisla Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wisla Krakow at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stal Mielec vs Wisla Krakow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stal Mielec host Wisla Krakow at Stadion MOSiR in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 13 August 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Stal Mielec have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 outings — a 0.33 PPG return. Last five: D L L. They are averaging 0.33 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Stal Mielec have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wisla Krakow stand at 1W 1D 1L from 3 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.33 PPG. Last five: W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Wisla Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Wisla Krakow's 1.33 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Stal Mielec's 0.33 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Stal Mielec trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Wisla Krakow trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stal Mielec 33% versus Wisla Krakow 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stal Mielec 0% | Wisla Krakow 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stal Mielec 1.02 xG and Wisla Krakow 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stal Mielec attack 0.797 / defence 1.292 | Wisla Krakow attack 0.941 / defence 1.270. League average goals — home 1.012 / away 1.103. Stal Mielec's attack strength of 0.797 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Wisla Krakow bring a strong defensive rating of 1.270 — this is suppressing Stal Mielec's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Stal Mielec games / 3 Wisla Krakow games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Stal Mielec 27% | Draw 30% | Wisla Krakow 43%. Fair-value odds: Stal Mielec 3.70 | Draw 3.33 | Wisla Krakow 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wisla Krakow at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wisla Krakow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Stal Mielec 33% | Wisla Krakow 67%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stal Mielec vs Wisla Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadion MOSiR • Kick-off: Friday 13 Aug 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stal Mielec 27% | Draw 30% | Wisla Krakow 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Stal Mielec 1.02 / Wisla Krakow 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Stal Mielec attack 0.797 / def 1.292 | Wisla Krakow attack 0.941 / def 1.270 | league avg home 1.012 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Wisla Krakow (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Stal Mielec xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Wisla Krakow xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stal Mielec vs Wisla Krakow kick off?
Stal Mielec vs Wisla Krakow kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 13 August 2021 at Stadion MOSiR.
What was the final score in Stal Mielec vs Wisla Krakow?
Stal Mielec 2 - 1 Wisla Krakow.
Where is Stal Mielec vs Wisla Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion MOSiR.
What competition is Stal Mielec vs Wisla Krakow part of?
Stal Mielec vs Wisla Krakow is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Stal Mielec vs Wisla Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Stal Mielec a 27% chance of winning, Wisla Krakow a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Wisla Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stal Mielec vs Wisla Krakow?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Stal Mielec and Wisla Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Stal Mielec vs Wisla Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Wisla Krakow?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stal Mielec and Wisla Krakow in?
Stal Mielec (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.33 / GA 1.33 | L5 D-L-L. Wisla Krakow (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.33 | L5 W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Stal Mielec's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Wisla Krakow's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, Wisla Krakow's attack versus Stal Mielec's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Krakow Win
27%
3.64
30%
3.37
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Stal Mielec xG
Total xG
2.36
1.34
Wisla Krakow xG
3.64
27%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
7%
13.90
15%
6.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 12.6 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stal Mielec vs Wisla Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Stal Mielec and Wisla Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Stal Mielec and 1.34 for Wisla Krakow, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Stal Mielec vs Wisla Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stal Mielec's recent record stands at 0W 1D 2L from 3 games, a 0.33 PPG return, with D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Stal Mielec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Wisla Krakow, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 1L across 3 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wisla Krakow by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stal Mielec heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Stal Mielec are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Wisla Krakow are on 2.00 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wisla Krakow in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stal Mielec
Early Season
Wisla Krakow
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stal Mielec and Wisla Krakow in coming into this match?
Stal Mielec have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while Wisla Krakow have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have Stal Mielec or Wisla Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stal Mielec have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Wisla Krakow in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stal Mielec and Wisla Krakow runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Stal Mielec
0
Draws
0
Wisla Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Wisla Krakow?
From 2 meetings on record, Stal Mielec have won 2, Wisla Krakow have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stal Mielec and Wisla Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2022, when Wisla Krakow 0-1 Stal Mielec.
Who has won more matches between Stal Mielec and Wisla Krakow?
Stal Mielec have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Wisla Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stal Mielec 33%, Wisla Krakow 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 0% (Stal Mielec) and 100% (Wisla Krakow).
On the defensive side: Wisla Krakow in 33%; Stal Mielec have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stal Mielec home games / Wisla Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stal Mielec play Wisla Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Stal Mielec's recent matches and 67% of Wisla Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stal Mielec vs Wisla Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Stal Mielec's recent games and 100% of Wisla Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stal Mielec and Wisla Krakow tend to score early?
Stal Mielec have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Wisla Krakow in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stal Mielec defy the odds to beat Wisla Krakow 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stal Mielec beat Wisla Krakow 2-1 at Stadion MOSiR, Regular Season - 4, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stal Mielec 1.02 xG and Wisla Krakow 1.34 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Stal Mielec beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stal Mielec attack 0.80 / defence 1.29 against Wisla Krakow attack 0.94 / defence 1.27, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Stal Mielec 27% | Draw 30% | Wisla Krakow 43%, with Wisla Krakow to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Stal Mielec win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stal Mielec 0%, Wisla Krakow 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stal Mielec's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Wisla Krakow's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Wisla Krakow arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.33. Form was overturned, with Stal Mielec winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Stal Mielec scored 2 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm. Wisla Krakow managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.