Stal Mielec 1-1 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stal Mielec at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 2 as Stal Mielec welcome Radomiak Radom to Stadion Miejski w Mielcu. Kick-off is set for Monday 25 July 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stal Mielec stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Stal Mielec have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Stal Mielec at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Radomiak Radom have recorded 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Stal Mielec) versus 0.90 (Radomiak Radom). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Stal Mielec, 0 for Radomiak Radom and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 20 Mar 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Stal Mielec trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Radomiak Radom trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stal Mielec 60% versus Radomiak Radom 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stal Mielec 49% | Radomiak Radom 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stal Mielec 1.20 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stal Mielec attack 0.970 / defence 1.017 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.877 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.161. Data: 35 Stal Mielec games / 35 Radomiak Radom games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Stal Mielec 38% | Draw 32% | Radomiak Radom 30%. Fair-value odds: Stal Mielec 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Radomiak Radom 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stal Mielec as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stal Mielec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Stal Mielec 70% | Radomiak Radom 30%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Mielcu • Kick-off: Monday 25 Jul 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stal Mielec 38% | Draw 32% | Radomiak Radom 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Stal Mielec 1.20 / Radomiak Radom 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Stal Mielec attack 0.970 / def 1.017 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.877 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.291 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Stal Mielec (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Stal Mielec xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Radomiak Radom xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 25 July 2022 at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu.
What was the final score in Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom?
Stal Mielec 1 - 1 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu.
What competition is Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Stal Mielec a 38% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Stal Mielec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Stal Mielec and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Radomiak Radom?
Record (2 meetings): Stal Mielec 1W | Draws 1 | Radomiak Radom 0W.
What form are Stal Mielec and Radomiak Radom in?
Stal Mielec (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Stal Mielec's attack at 0.97x the league average against Radomiak Radom's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Stal Mielec's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stal Mielec Win
38%
2.64
32%
3.08
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Stal Mielec xG
Total xG
2.23
1.03
Radomiak Radom xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
36%
2.82
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
13%
7.44
9%
11.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 11.1 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.3 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Stal Mielec and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Stal Mielec and 1.03 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stal Mielec's recent record stands at 10W 10D 15L from 35 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Stal Mielec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Radomiak Radom, meanwhile, have gone 11W 16D 8L across 35 games — 1.40 PPG, with D-L-W-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stal Mielec on 1.14 PPG, Radomiak Radom on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Stal Mielec have managed 7W 4D 6L from 17 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Radomiak Radom's away record stands at 4W 8D 5L across 17 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Stal Mielec are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.23 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stal Mielec have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stal Mielec
Early Season
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stal Mielec and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Stal Mielec have gone 10W 10D 15L in their last 35 games (1.14 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 11W 16D 8L in their last 35 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stal Mielec at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Stal Mielec's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stal Mielec at home: 1.47 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Stal Mielec's record when hosting Radomiak Radom specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Stal Mielec
3
Draws
2
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Radomiak Radom?
From 8 meetings on record, Stal Mielec have won 3, Radomiak Radom have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stal Mielec and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2025, when Stal Mielec 2-2 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Stal Mielec and Radomiak Radom?
Stal Mielec have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stal Mielec 53%, Radomiak Radom 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Stal Mielec) and 35% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom in 35%; Stal Mielec have failed to score in 29% of games; Radomiak Radom in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stal Mielec home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stal Mielec play Radomiak Radom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Stal Mielec's recent matches and 41% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stal Mielec vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Stal Mielec's recent games and 35% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stal Mielec and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Stal Mielec have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stal Mielec and Radomiak Radom share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stal Mielec and Radomiak Radom finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu, Regular Season - 2, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stal Mielec 1.20 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.03 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stal Mielec attack 0.97 / defence 1.02 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.88 / defence 0.96, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Stal Mielec 38% | Draw 32% | Radomiak Radom 30%, with Stal Mielec to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stal Mielec 49%, Radomiak Radom 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stal Mielec's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stal Mielec 1.14 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.