Slask Wroclaw 0-0 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slask Wroclaw vs Legia Warszawa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Slask Wroclaw and Legia Warszawa meet at Tarczyński Arena in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 13 November 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Slask Wroclaw (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slask Wroclaw's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Tarczyński Arena this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Legia Warszawa's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Legia Warszawa have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Legia Warszawa arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Slask Wroclaw have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Legia Warszawa in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Slask Wroclaw, 1 for Legia Warszawa and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2022, ended 0–1 with Legia Warszawa winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Slask Wroclaw — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Legia Warszawa — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slask Wroclaw 64% versus Legia Warszawa 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slask Wroclaw 48% | Legia Warszawa 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slask Wroclaw 1.59 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slask Wroclaw attack 1.131 / defence 1.126 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.130 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.303 / away 1.281. Data: 50 Slask Wroclaw games / 50 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 38% | Draw 23% | Legia Warszawa 39%. Fair-value odds: Slask Wroclaw 2.63 | Draw 4.35 | Legia Warszawa 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Legia Warszawa are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.22 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Slask Wroclaw 80% | Legia Warszawa 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slask Wroclaw vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Tarczyński Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 38% | Draw 23% | Legia Warszawa 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Slask Wroclaw 1.59 / Legia Warszawa 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Slask Wroclaw attack 1.131 / def 1.126 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.130 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.303 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Slask Wroclaw xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Legia Warszawa xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slask Wroclaw vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Slask Wroclaw vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Tarczyński Arena.
What was the final score in Slask Wroclaw vs Legia Warszawa?
Slask Wroclaw 0 - 0 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Slask Wroclaw vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Tarczyński Arena.
What competition is Slask Wroclaw vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Slask Wroclaw vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Slask Wroclaw vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Slask Wroclaw a 38% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 39% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slask Wroclaw vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Slask Wroclaw and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Slask Wroclaw vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Legia Warszawa?
Record (2 meetings): Slask Wroclaw 1W | Draws 0 | Legia Warszawa 1W.
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Legia Warszawa in?
Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Slask Wroclaw's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Legia Warszawa's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. Flip it around — Legia Warszawa's attack (1.13x) against Slask Wroclaw's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
38%
2.67
23%
4.28
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Slask Wroclaw xG
Total xG
3.22
1.63
Legia Warszawa xG
2.67
38%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
20%
5.10
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
7%
13.61
8%
12.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.4 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.2 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slask Wroclaw vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Slask Wroclaw and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Slask Wroclaw and 1.63 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Slask Wroclaw vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Slask Wroclaw come into this having played 50 games, going 12W 19D 19L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-L. The sample for Slask Wroclaw is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Legia Warszawa sit at 1.48 PPG from 50 outings (22W 8D 20L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Slask Wroclaw against 1.48 for Legia Warszawa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Slask Wroclaw's home form reads 6W 11D 8L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.16 PPG return.
Away from home, Legia Warszawa have taken 0.96 points per game from 25 outings (6W 6D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.48 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Legia Warszawa's season.
Attack vs Defence
Slask Wroclaw are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.40 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slask Wroclaw have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Slask Wroclaw have gone 12W 19D 19L in their last 50 games (1.10 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 22W 8D 20L in their last 50 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slask Wroclaw at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Slask Wroclaw's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slask Wroclaw at home: 1.16 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slask Wroclaw won 4-0 on 21 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slask Wroclaw have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Legia Warszawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Slask Wroclaw
3
Draws
3
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Legia Warszawa?
From 8 meetings on record, Slask Wroclaw have won 2, Legia Warszawa have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slask Wroclaw and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Legia Warszawa 3-1 Slask Wroclaw.
Who has won more matches between Slask Wroclaw and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slask Wroclaw 64%, Legia Warszawa 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Slask Wroclaw) and 52% (Legia Warszawa).
On the defensive side: Slask Wroclaw have failed to score in 32% of games; Legia Warszawa in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slask Wroclaw home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slask Wroclaw play Legia Warszawa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Slask Wroclaw's games and 56% of Legia Warszawa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Slask Wroclaw vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Slask Wroclaw's recent games and 52% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slask Wroclaw and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Slask Wroclaw have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Slask Wroclaw's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slask Wroclaw and Legia Warszawa finished level at 0-0 at Tarczyński Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slask Wroclaw 1.59 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.63 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Slask Wroclaw fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Legia Warszawa landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slask Wroclaw attack 1.13 / defence 1.13 against Legia Warszawa attack 1.13 / defence 1.08, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slask Wroclaw 38% | Draw 23% | Legia Warszawa 39%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slask Wroclaw 48%, Legia Warszawa 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slask Wroclaw 1.10 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.