Raków Częstochowa 1-1 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 27 as Raków Częstochowa welcome Widzew Łódź to zondacrypto Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 April 2026 at 13:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Raków Częstochowa have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Raków Częstochowa have posted 5W 3D 2L at zondacrypto Arena — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at zondacrypto Arena. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Raków Częstochowa are significantly better at zondacrypto Arena than their overall form suggests.
Widzew Łódź — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Widzew Łódź have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Raków Częstochowa 1.20 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Raków Częstochowa have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 7 past contests while Widzew Łódź have managed just 0 wins.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
The historical record gives Raków Częstochowa a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Raków Częstochowa in-play and half-time data (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Widzew Łódź in-play and half-time data (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 47% versus Widzew Łódź 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 42% | Widzew Łódź 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.01 xG and Widzew Łódź 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 0.848 / defence 0.786 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.866 / defence 0.851. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.100. Raków Częstochowa's defence rating of 0.786 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 Raków Częstochowa games / 60 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 40% | Draw 35% | Widzew Łódź 25%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 2.50 | Draw 2.86 | Widzew Łódź 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Widzew Łódź's lower xG of 0.75 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.76 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 34%. Form rates corroborate: Raków Częstochowa 40% | Widzew Łódź 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: zondacrypto Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Apr 2026, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 40% | Draw 35% | Widzew Łódź 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 34% | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.01 / Widzew Łódź 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 0.848 / def 0.786 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.866 / def 0.851 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Widzew Łódź xG
34%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 13:45 on Saturday 4 April 2026 at zondacrypto Arena.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź?
Raków Częstochowa 1 - 1 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at zondacrypto Arena.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 40% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 25% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Widzew Łódź?
Record (7 meetings): Raków Częstochowa 5W | Draws 2 | Widzew Łódź 0W.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Widzew Łódź in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Raków Częstochowa's attack at 0.85x the league average against Widzew Łódź's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Widzew Łódź's attack versus Raków Częstochowa's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.7%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
40%
2.50
35%
2.89
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
1.76
0.75
Widzew Łódź xG
2.50
40%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.90
66%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
19%
5.28
9%
10.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.1 | 12.8 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.4 | 13.0 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.8%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 0.75 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Raków Częstochowa have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 31W 14D 15L record — W-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Widzew Łódź's form line: 19W 12D 29L from 60 games, 1.15 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-D. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Raków Częstochowa are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Widzew Łódź.
Venue Form
On home soil, Raków Częstochowa have posted 1.76 PPG from 29 outings (15W 6D 8L).
On the road, Widzew Łódź have gone 6W 5D 18L from 29 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.15 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
Widzew Łódź
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 31W 14D 15L in their last 60 games (1.78 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 19W 12D 29L in their last 60 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 1.76 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Widzew Łódź been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Widzew Łódź in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Raków Częstochowa's record when hosting Widzew Łódź specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Raków Częstochowa
3
Draws
0
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Widzew Łódź?
From 8 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 5, Widzew Łódź have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 1-1 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Widzew Łódź?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 48%, Widzew Łódź 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Raków Częstochowa) and 55% (Widzew Łódź).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Widzew Łódź in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Widzew Łódź?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 55% of Widzew Łódź's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 55% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Raków Częstochowa and Widzew Łódź share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at zondacrypto Arena, Regular Season - 27, as Raków Częstochowa and Widzew Łódź drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.01 xG and Widzew Łódź 0.75 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 0.85 / defence 0.79 against Widzew Łódź attack 0.87 / defence 0.85, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 40% | Draw 35% | Widzew Łódź 25%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 42%, Widzew Łódź 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.