Raków Częstochowa 3-0 Warta Poznań – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Raków Częstochowa vs Warta Poznań encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Raków Częstochowa host Warta Poznań at Stadion Raków in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 October 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Raków Częstochowa stand at 4W 3D 1L from 8 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.88 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Warta Poznań — All Games: 1W 4D 4L from 9 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 0.78 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.89 per game is modest, conceding 1.11 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Warta Poznań, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Warta Poznań away from home this season: 1W 1D 2L from 4 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Raków Częstochowa are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 1.10 PPG ahead (1.88 vs 0.78). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Raków Częstochowa in-play tendencies (8 games): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Warta Poznań in-play tendencies (8 games): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games; they fail to score in 62% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 75% versus Warta Poznań 25%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 88% | Warta Poznań 12%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.41 xG and Warta Poznań 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.122 / defence 1.342 | Warta Poznań attack 0.851 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.182 / away 1.214. Data: 8 Raków Częstochowa games / 9 Warta Poznań games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 38% | Draw 25% | Warta Poznań 37%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Warta Poznań 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Raków Częstochowa are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Raków Częstochowa 75% | Warta Poznań 25%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Warta Poznań | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadion Raków • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Oct 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 38% | Draw 25% | Warta Poznań 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.41 / Warta Poznań 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.122 / def 1.342 | Warta Poznań attack 0.851 / def 1.059 | league avg home 1.182 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Warta Poznań xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Warta Poznań kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Warta Poznań kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 3 October 2021 at Stadion Raków.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Warta Poznań?
Raków Częstochowa 3 - 0 Warta Poznań.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Warta Poznań being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Raków.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Warta Poznań part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Warta Poznań is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Warta Poznań?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 38% chance of winning, Warta Poznań a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Warta Poznań?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Warta Poznań will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Warta Poznań have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Warta Poznań?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Warta Poznań in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 4W-3D-1L in 8 | 1.88 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.62 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Warta Poznań (all comps): 1W-4D-4L in 9 | 0.78 PPG | GF 0.89 / GA 1.11 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Raków Częstochowa's attack at 1.12x the league average against Warta Poznań's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Warta Poznań's attack versus Raków Częstochowa's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
38%
2.65
25%
3.95
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.79
1.39
Warta Poznań xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
25%
4.00
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
9%
10.60
9%
11.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.5 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.9 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Warta Poznań?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Warta Poznań expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 1.39 for Warta Poznań, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Warta Poznań?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Raków Częstochowa come into this having played 8 games, going 4W 3D 1L for 1.88 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-D. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Warta Poznań sit at 0.75 PPG from 8 outings (1W 3D 4L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Warta Poznań is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Raków Częstochowa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.13 PPG clear of Warta Poznań — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Warta Poznań are on 0.75 scored and 1.00 conceded. Raków Częstochowa's scoring rate against Warta Poznań's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Raków Częstochowa have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Warta Poznań in 25%.
Last 8 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
Warta Poznań
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Warta Poznań in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 4W 3D 1L in their last 8 games (1.88 PPG), while Warta Poznań have gone 1W 3D 4L in their last 8 (0.75 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Raków Częstochowa and Warta Poznań runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Oct 2021, when Raków Częstochowa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Raków Częstochowa's record when hosting Warta Poznań specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Raków Częstochowa
2
Draws
1
Warta Poznań
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Warta Poznań?
From 6 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 3, Warta Poznań have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Warta Poznań last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2024, when Warta Poznań 2-1 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Warta Poznań?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Warta Poznań are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 75%, Warta Poznań 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 88% (Raków Częstochowa) and 12% (Warta Poznań).
On the defensive side: Warta Poznań in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Warta Poznań away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Warta Poznań?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 25% of Warta Poznań's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Warta Poznań usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 88% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 12% of Warta Poznań's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Warta Poznań tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Warta Poznań in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Raków Częstochowa run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Warta Poznań.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Warta Poznań 3-0 at Stadion Raków, Regular Season - 10, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.41 xG and Warta Poznań 1.39 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Raków Częstochowa beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Warta Poznań landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.12 / defence 1.34 against Warta Poznań attack 0.85 / defence 1.06, drawn from 8/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 38% | Draw 25% | Warta Poznań 37%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 88%, Warta Poznań 12%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (8 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Warta Poznań's trading profile (8 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 62% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Raków Częstochowa scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Warta Poznań shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.