Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 13 as Raków Częstochowa welcome Pogon Szczecin to zondacrypto Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 October 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Raków Częstochowa stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Raków Częstochowa at zondacrypto Arena this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Raków Częstochowa are significantly better at zondacrypto Arena than their overall form suggests.
Pogon Szczecin — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pogon Szczecin's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Pogon Szczecin's 2.10 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Raków Częstochowa's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Raków Częstochowa hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 6 wins from 10 previous encounters compared to 2 for Pogon Szczecin, with 2 draws in between.
The last 10 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2026, ended 2–0 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
The historical record gives Raków Częstochowa a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Raków Częstochowa trading profile (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Pogon Szczecin trading profile (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Raków Częstochowa 66% and Pogon Szczecin 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 59% | Pogon Szczecin 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 0.93 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 0.994 / defence 1.495 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.958 / defence 0.611. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.332. Pogon Szczecin's defence strength of 0.611 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 45 Raków Częstochowa games / 44 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 15% | Draw 28% | Pogon Szczecin 57%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 6.67 | Draw 3.57 | Pogon Szczecin 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Pogon Szczecin (57%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Raków Częstochowa dominate the H2H record, yet Pogon Szczecin are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pogon Szczecin at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Raków Częstochowa 70% | Pogon Szczecin 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: zondacrypto Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 15% | Draw 28% | Pogon Szczecin 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Raków Częstochowa 0.93 / Pogon Szczecin 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 0.994 / def 1.495 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.958 / def 0.611 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
1.91
Pogon Szczecin xG
55%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at zondacrypto Arena.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at zondacrypto Arena.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 15% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 57% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (10 meetings): Raków Częstochowa 6W | Draws 2 | Pogon Szczecin 2W.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Raków Częstochowa's attack at 0.99x the league average against Pogon Szczecin's defence at 0.61x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pogon Szczecin's attack versus Raków Częstochowa's defence, projects 1.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (10.6%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
15%
6.74
28%
3.55
57%
1.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
10.6%
Away win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.84
1.91
Pogon Szczecin xG
6.74
15%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
1.75
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
15%
6.73
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
2%
45.40
22%
4.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 11.1 | 10.6 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 1.91 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Raków Częstochowa's recent record stands at 17W 7D 20L from 44 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pogon Szczecin, meanwhile, have gone 19W 9D 16L across 44 games — 1.50 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Raków Częstochowa on 1.32 PPG, Pogon Szczecin on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Raków Częstochowa have managed 9W 4D 8L from 21 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pogon Szczecin's away record stands at 7W 4D 10L across 21 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.41 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Raków Częstochowa have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 17W 7D 20L in their last 44 games (1.32 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 19W 9D 16L in their last 44 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 1.48 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Raków Częstochowa's record when hosting Pogon Szczecin specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Raków Częstochowa
2
Draws
2
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin?
From 10 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 6, Pogon Szczecin have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 2-0 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 57%, Pogon Szczecin 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Raków Częstochowa) and 38% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Pogon Szczecin in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Pogon Szczecin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 48% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 38% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.