Raków Częstochowa 3-0 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Raków Częstochowa at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 1 as Raków Częstochowa welcome Jagiellonia to Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 July 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Raków Częstochowa have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Raków Częstochowa haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Raków Częstochowa's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Raków Częstochowa are significantly better at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jagiellonia stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Jagiellonia haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Jagiellonia have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Raków Częstochowa 1.70 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Raków Częstochowa, 1 for Jagiellonia and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2023, ended 2–1 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Raków Częstochowa in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Jagiellonia in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 38% versus Jagiellonia 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 47% | Jagiellonia 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.90 xG and Jagiellonia 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.198 / defence 0.910 | Jagiellonia attack 1.029 / defence 1.133. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.022. Data: 34 Raków Częstochowa games / 34 Jagiellonia games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 59% | Draw 22% | Jagiellonia 19%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 1.69 | Draw 4.55 | Jagiellonia 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Raków Częstochowa (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Raków Częstochowa are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Raków Częstochowa 40% | Jagiellonia 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jul 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 59% | Draw 22% | Jagiellonia 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 52% | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.90 / Jagiellonia 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.198 / def 0.910 | Jagiellonia attack 1.029 / def 1.133 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.022 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Jagiellonia xG
52%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 22 July 2023 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia?
Raków Częstochowa 3 - 0 Jagiellonia.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 59% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia?
Record (4 meetings): Raków Częstochowa 2W | Draws 1 | Jagiellonia 1W.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Raków Częstochowa's attack at 1.20x the league average against Jagiellonia's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jagiellonia's attack versus Raków Częstochowa's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
59%
1.68
22%
4.53
19%
5.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.85
0.96
Jagiellonia xG
1.68
59%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
5.38
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
15%
6.65
Win to Nil
23%
4.39
3%
35.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 10.5 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 0.96 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 34 outings, Raków Częstochowa have picked up 2.21 PPG on a 23W 6D 5L record — W-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. Raków Częstochowa haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Jagiellonia's form line: 9W 14D 11L from 34 games, 1.21 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-L. Jagiellonia haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Raków Częstochowa are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jagiellonia.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Raków Częstochowa have posted 2.59 PPG from 17 outings (14W 2D 1L).
On the road, Jagiellonia have gone 1W 10D 6L from 17 away games — 0.76 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.21 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jagiellonia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.41 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia in 71%.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Pre-Season
Jagiellonia
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 23W 6D 5L in their last 34 games (2.21 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 9W 14D 11L in their last 34 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Jagiellonia away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (2.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 2.59 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 0.76 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Jagiellonia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Jagiellonia in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Dec 2021, when Raków Częstochowa won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Raków Częstochowa's record when hosting Jagiellonia specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Raków Częstochowa
2
Draws
4
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia?
From 10 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 4, Jagiellonia have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 0-2 Jagiellonia.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 35%, Jagiellonia 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Raków Częstochowa) and 35% (Jagiellonia).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches; Jagiellonia in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Jagiellonia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 71% of Jagiellonia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 35% of Jagiellonia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Raków Częstochowa run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Jagiellonia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Jagiellonia 3-0 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, Regular Season - 1, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.90 xG and Jagiellonia 0.96 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Raków Częstochowa beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jagiellonia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.20 / defence 0.91 against Jagiellonia attack 1.03 / defence 1.13, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 59% | Draw 22% | Jagiellonia 19%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 47%, Jagiellonia 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 1.21. Form held, and they took the win. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.