Radomiak Radom 0-1 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zaglebie Lubin at 40%, yet in-form Radomiak Radom provide a compelling counter-argument — this Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 23 as Radomiak Radom welcome Zaglebie Lubin to Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego. Kick-off is set for Monday 6 March 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Radomiak Radom have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D W D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Radomiak Radom's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zaglebie Lubin stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Radomiak Radom have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Radomiak Radom's 30% rate and Zaglebie Lubin's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Radomiak Radom have won 2, Zaglebie Lubin 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2022, ended 1–0 with Radomiak Radom winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Radomiak Radom in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Zaglebie Lubin in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 50% versus Zaglebie Lubin 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 39% | Zaglebie Lubin 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.09 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.881 / defence 0.938 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.190 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.126. Data: 56 Radomiak Radom games / 56 Zaglebie Lubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 32% | Draw 29% | Zaglebie Lubin 40%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Zaglebie Lubin 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zaglebie Lubin as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Radomiak Radom (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 30% | Zaglebie Lubin 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Monday 6 Mar 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 32% | Draw 29% | Zaglebie Lubin 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.09 / Zaglebie Lubin 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.881 / def 0.938 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.190 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Zaglebie Lubin xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 6 March 2023 at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Radomiak Radom 0 - 1 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 32% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin?
Record (3 meetings): Radomiak Radom 2W | Draws 0 | Zaglebie Lubin 1W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Radomiak Radom's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Zaglebie Lubin's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. The same calculation in reverse, Zaglebie Lubin's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
32%
3.16
29%
3.50
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.35
1.26
Zaglebie Lubin xG
3.16
32%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
9%
11.08
13%
7.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 12.0 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.26 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Radomiak Radom come into this having played 56 games, going 20W 20D 16L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-W. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Zaglebie Lubin sit at 1.14 PPG from 56 outings (18W 10D 28L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Radomiak Radom on 1.43 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Radomiak Radom's home form reads 10W 9D 8L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Zaglebie Lubin have taken 1.11 points per game from 27 outings (9W 3D 15L).
The Goals Picture
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.14 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 20W 20D 16L in their last 56 games (1.43 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 18W 10D 28L in their last 56 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.44 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 May 2022, when Zaglebie Lubin won 1-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Radomiak Radom's record when hosting Zaglebie Lubin specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Radomiak Radom
0
Draws
6
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 10 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 4, Zaglebie Lubin have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin?
Zaglebie Lubin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 56%, Zaglebie Lubin 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Radomiak Radom) and 67% (Zaglebie Lubin).
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Zaglebie Lubin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 37% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 67% of Zaglebie Lubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zaglebie Lubin edge out Radomiak Radom 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin beat Radomiak Radom 0-1 at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 23, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.09 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.26 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Radomiak Radom fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 0.88 / defence 0.94 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.19 / defence 1.02, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 32% | Draw 29% | Zaglebie Lubin 40%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 39%, Zaglebie Lubin 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.43 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zaglebie Lubin win broke the near-deadlock. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.