Radomiak Radom 3-1 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Radomiak Radom take on Widzew Łódź.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Widzew Łódź make the trip to Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego to face Radomiak Radom in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Sunday 21 May 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Radomiak Radom (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Radomiak Radom have posted 2W 3D 5L at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Widzew Łódź have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Widzew Łódź have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Radomiak Radom against 0.50 for Widzew Łódź. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Radomiak Radom, 0 for Widzew Łódź and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2022, ended 3–1 with Radomiak Radom winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Radomiak Radom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Widzew Łódź goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 41% versus Widzew Łódź 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 38% | Widzew Łódź 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 0.87 xG and Widzew Łódź 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.669 / defence 0.910 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.771 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.047. Radomiak Radom's attack strength of 0.669 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 66 Radomiak Radom games / 32 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 36% | Draw 36% | Widzew Łódź 28%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.78 | Draw 2.78 | Widzew Łódź 3.57. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.61. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.61 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Widzew Łódź's lower xG of 0.73 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.61 combined xG gives a 22% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 31%. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 30% | Widzew Łódź 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 21 May 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 36% | Draw 36% | Widzew Łódź 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% | BTTS 31% | xG Radomiak Radom 0.87 / Widzew Łódź 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.669 / def 0.910 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.771 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.047 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Widzew Łódź xG
31%
BTTS
48%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 21 May 2023 at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź?
Radomiak Radom 3 - 1 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 36% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 28% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź?
Record (1 meetings): Radomiak Radom 1W | Draws 0 | Widzew Łódź 0W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Radomiak Radom's attack at 0.67x the league average against Widzew Łódź's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Widzew Łódź's attack (0.77x) against Radomiak Radom's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 66/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 21.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.8%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
36%
2.80
36%
2.75
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.5%
Home win
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
1.61
0.73
Widzew Łódź xG
2.80
36%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
48%
Over 1.5
2.08
52%
Under 1.5
1.92
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.24
69%
BTTS No
1.45
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
17%
5.84
12%
8.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.1 | 14.8 | 5.4 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.5 | 12.8 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 7.6 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.7%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 0.73 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 1.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Radomiak Radom's recent record stands at 11W 8D 13L from 32 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five.
Widzew Łódź, meanwhile, have gone 11W 8D 13L across 32 games — 1.28 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Radomiak Radom against 1.28 for Widzew Łódź. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Radomiak Radom have managed 4W 4D 8L from 16 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Widzew Łódź's away record stands at 6W 5D 5L across 16 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Widzew Łódź come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Radomiak Radom are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.16 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: Widzew Łódź in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Current Season
Widzew Łódź
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 11W 8D 13L in their last 32 games (1.28 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 11W 8D 13L in their last 32 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Widzew Łódź's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.00 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Radomiak Radom or Widzew Łódź been keeping clean sheets recently?
Radomiak Radom have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Widzew Łódź in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Radomiak Radom won 0-3 on 2 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Radomiak Radom have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Widzew Łódź — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Radomiak Radom
1
Draws
3
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź?
From 8 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 4, Widzew Łódź have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Radomiak Radom 2-1 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Widzew Łódź see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 31% (Radomiak Radom) and 31% (Widzew Łódź) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Radomiak Radom and 31% for Widzew Łódź.
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Widzew Łódź in 44%; Radomiak Radom have failed to score in 50% of games; Widzew Łódź in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Widzew Łódź?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 31% of Widzew Łódź's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 31% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Radomiak Radom cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Widzew Łódź.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat Widzew Łódź 3-1 at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 33, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 0.87 xG and Widzew Łódź 0.73 xG, a combined 1.61. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Radomiak Radom beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 0.67 / defence 0.91 against Widzew Łódź attack 0.77 / defence 0.98, drawn from 66/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 36% | Draw 36% | Widzew Łódź 28%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 48% and landed. Over 3.5 was 8% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 38%, Widzew Łódź 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.28 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Radomiak Radom win broke the near-deadlock. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.