Radomiak Radom 1-0 Warta Poznań – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Warta Poznań at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Warta Poznań fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Radomiak Radom and Warta Poznań meet at Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Friday 20 August 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Radomiak Radom have collected 1.33 PPG across 3 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 1W 1D 1L. Last five: D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Warta Poznań (all games): 1W 2D 1L across 4 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.25 points per game. Last five: D D W L. They are scoring at 1.75 per game and conceding 1.25. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Warta Poznań have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.33 vs 1.25 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Radomiak Radom — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Warta Poznań — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Radomiak Radom 33% | Warta Poznań 33%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Radomiak Radom 33% | Warta Poznań 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.51 xG and Warta Poznań 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.200 / defence 1.119 | Warta Poznań attack 1.257 / defence 1.131. League average goals — home 1.113 / away 1.129. Warta Poznań have an above-average attack strength of 1.257 — the away xG of 1.59 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 3 Radomiak Radom games / 4 Warta Poznań games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 35% | Draw 27% | Warta Poznań 38%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Warta Poznań 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Warta Poznań are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Warta Poznań if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.10 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Radomiak Radom 33% | Warta Poznań 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Warta Poznań | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza • Kick-off: Friday 20 Aug 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 35% | Draw 27% | Warta Poznań 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.51 / Warta Poznań 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 1.200 / def 1.119 | Warta Poznań attack 1.257 / def 1.131 | league avg home 1.113 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Warta Poznań (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Warta Poznań xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Warta Poznań kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Warta Poznań kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 20 August 2021 at Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Warta Poznań?
Radomiak Radom 1 - 0 Warta Poznań.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Warta Poznań being played?
The match is being played at Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Warta Poznań part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Warta Poznań is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Warta Poznań?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 35% chance of winning, Warta Poznań a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Warta Poznań the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Warta Poznań?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Warta Poznań will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Warta Poznań have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Warta Poznań?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Warta Poznań in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.67 | L5 D-W-L. Warta Poznań (all comps): 1W-2D-1L in 4 | 1.25 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 1.25 | L5 D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Radomiak Radom's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Warta Poznań's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. Flip it around — Warta Poznań's attack (1.26x) against Radomiak Radom's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 3/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Warta Poznań Win
35%
2.85
27%
3.77
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
3.10
1.59
Warta Poznań xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
20%
4.89
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
7%
13.96
8%
11.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.2 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.8 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.2 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Warta Poznań?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Warta Poznań expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.59 for Warta Poznań, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Warta Poznań?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Radomiak Radom's recent record stands at 1W 1D 1L from 3 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Warta Poznań, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 1L across 3 games — 1.33 PPG, with D-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Warta Poznań, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Radomiak Radom against 1.33 for Warta Poznań. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Warta Poznań are on 1.67 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Last 3 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
Warta Poznań
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Warta Poznań in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while Warta Poznań have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have Radomiak Radom or Warta Poznań been keeping clean sheets recently?
Radomiak Radom have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Warta Poznań in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Radomiak Radom have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Warta Poznań — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Radomiak Radom
1
Draws
2
Warta Poznań
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Warta Poznań?
From 6 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 3, Warta Poznań have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Warta Poznań last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2024, when Warta Poznań 0-0 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Warta Poznań?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Radomiak Radom see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Warta Poznań are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Radomiak Radom) and 33% (Warta Poznań) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Radomiak Radom and 33% for Warta Poznań.
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Warta Poznań in 33%; Radomiak Radom have failed to score in 67% of games; Warta Poznań in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Warta Poznań away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Warta Poznań?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 33% of Warta Poznań's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Warta Poznań usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 33% of Warta Poznań's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Warta Poznań tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Warta Poznań in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Radomiak Radom defy the odds to beat Warta Poznań 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat Warta Poznań 1-0 at Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza, Regular Season - 5, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.51 xG and Warta Poznań 1.59 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Warta Poznań landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.20 / defence 1.12 against Warta Poznań attack 1.26 / defence 1.13, drawn from 3/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 35% | Draw 27% | Warta Poznań 38%, with Warta Poznań to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Radomiak Radom win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 33%, Warta Poznań 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Warta Poznań's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.33 PPG, Warta Poznań 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Radomiak Radom win broke the near-deadlock. Warta Poznań managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.